The recent French legislative elections have resulted in a significant shift in the political landscape, with Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition facing a crushing defeat. The 'Together' coalition, comprising the Renaissance, Horizons, and Agir parties, secured only 20.76% of the votes in the first round, down from nearly 26% in 2022. This decline suggests a loss of many parliamentary seats in the upcoming second round.
In contrast, the right-wing populist party, Rassemblement National (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, has emerged as the dominant force, securing around 34% of the votes. Projections indicate that RN could achieve a relative or absolute majority in the National Assembly after the second round. This marks a significant victory for Le Pen, who has called on her supporters to strive for an absolute majority in the next round.
Macron's support bloc performed well in the west of France, Paris, and the west of Île-de-France, often exceeding 30% of the votes in these regions. However, the coalition struggled in other parts of the country, particularly in the South-East, where it often received less than 20% of the votes.
Two Ensemble candidates, Pierre Cazeneuve and Mikaele Seo, were elected deputies in the first round. However, the presidential coalition was eliminated in 147 constituencies and will face one or more opponents in the second round in other areas. In some constituencies, Ensemble candidates have withdrawn to prevent the National Rally from winning.
The high voter turnout of 66.71% in the first round indicates the importance of this election to the French populace. Despite obtaining more votes than in 2022, the lower percentage score among a larger voter base highlights the challenges faced by Macron's coalition.
Following the success of the right-wing populists, Macron has called for a 'broad, democratic and republican alliance' to counter the RN. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced that around 60 government camp candidates would withdraw in the second round to prevent RN victories. This strategy aims to consolidate votes against the RN and avoid a right-wing majority.
The left-wing alliance, Nouveau Front Populaire, also performed well, securing around 28% of the votes. The left could gain 125 to 200 seats, while Macron's liberals risk dropping to just 60 to 100 seats. The potential alliances and local deals before the second round will significantly influence the final seat distribution.
Former President François Hollande, who received 37.6% in his constituency, has urged voters to prevent an absolute majority for the RN. Other parties have also called on their candidates to withdraw in favor of those best positioned to defeat the RN in a three-way race.
The election results have set the stage for a highly contested second round, with the possibility of significant political realignments. If no camp gains an absolute majority, France could face tough coalition negotiations, with Macron's government potentially remaining as a transitional administration or a government of experts being installed.
- The dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron has led to an unexpected shift in the French political scene. The Together coalition's poor performance has put Macron's leadership to the test.
- Marine Le Pen's RN party's strong showing in the first round has positioned it as a formidable force in French politics. The party's potential to secure an absolute majority has raised concerns about future policy directions, especially regarding France's stance within the EU and its support for Ukraine.
- The high voter turnout reflects the electorate's engagement and the critical nature of this election. The increased participation compared to 2022 indicates a heightened public interest in shaping the country's political future.
- The strategic withdrawals by Ensemble candidates to block the RN highlight the tactical maneuvers underway to influence the election outcome. This approach aims to consolidate anti-RN votes and prevent the right-wing populists from gaining a majority.
- The upcoming second round on July 7 will be decisive in determining the final composition of the National Assembly. The potential for local alliances and strategic withdrawals will play a crucial role in shaping the final results.
- The political landscape in France is poised for significant changes, with the possibility of new coalitions and power dynamics emerging. The outcome of the second round will have far-reaching implications for the country's governance and policy directions.
