The results of the second round of the 2024 French election are eagerly awaited, with polling stations across France open until 8 p.m. After the voting ends, the first forecasts and projections will be published, providing initial indications of the election outcomes. The high voter turnout, reported at 26.63 percent by midday, reflects the significant political stakes involved.
Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) is aiming for an absolute majority in the National Assembly, a result that could lead to radical shifts in both national and international policies. However, achieving this majority appears less likely as many third-place candidates from left-wing parties and Macron's centrist alliance have withdrawn to support better-placed moderate candidates against the RN.
The formation of three blocs in the National Assembly is anticipated if the RN does not secure an absolute majority. This could potentially paralyze the government and plunge France into a political crisis. The RN is expected to seek alliances with members of the bourgeois-conservative Républicains (LR) to gain decision-making power in parliament.
The first round of the early parliamentary elections saw the RN emerge victorious with 33.2 percent of the vote, followed by the left-green alliance Noveau Front Populaire (NFP) with 28.1 percent, and Macron's party alliance Ensemble (ENS) in third place with 21 percent. The latest polls suggest that the RN might secure between 175 to 205 seats, falling short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority.
The early parliamentary elections were called following President Emmanuel Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly after his party's poor performance in the 2024 European elections. This move has paved the way for a potential political turning point that France has not seen since the end of World War II.
The final results of the election will determine the composition of the 577-seat National Assembly, influencing the country's legislative agenda and its political orientation. Various scenarios are possible, including a coalition government or even a cohabitation where the government and the president come from different political camps.
The election results will also have broader implications for European Union policies and support for Ukraine in the ongoing conflict with Russia. Le Pen has indicated that her party would oppose the use of French weapons on Russian territory if they win the elections.
The results of the second round will be revealed progressively after 8 p.m., with final results expected during the night. This election is crucial as it will decide the future political landscape of France and potentially lead to significant changes in both domestic and international policies.
