French Election 2024: A Political Earthquake in the Making
The 2024 French election is poised to be a significant turning point, both nationally and internationally. With 49 million citizens entitled to vote, the early parliamentary elections could reshape the political landscape. Current polls suggest Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) is leading, indicating a potential defeat for President Emmanuel Macron's party. The RN, with Jordan Bardella as the leading candidate, may even secure an absolute majority, which could have profound implications for France's domestic and EU politics, including its stance on the Ukraine war.
Key Constituencies and Candidates
Among the crucial constituencies to watch, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal faces PS candidate Cécile Soubelet in Hauts-de-Seine, while in Marseille, Minister of the City Sabrina Agresti-Roubache competes against RN candidate Monique Griseti. Former Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne is campaigning in the left-wing 6th constituency, and far-right leader Marine Le Pen is expected to perform strongly in Hénin-Beaumont. The election features over 4,000 candidates, including ministers, party leaders, and political figures, all vying for 577 seats in the National Assembly.
Economic and Market Reactions
The political uncertainty has already impacted France's economic and financial circles. Since Macron announced the dissolution of Parliament, there has been a rise in interest rates on state debt and a decline in the Paris Stock Exchange. Business confidence has plummeted, with many leaders expressing concerns about the potential outcomes. According to a survey by the Small and Medium Enterprises Federation, many business leaders are considering postponing investment projects depending on the election results. The CAC 40 index experienced a significant drop, and financial markets remain in a state of anticipation as the election approaches.
Election Process and Projections
The first round of early parliamentary elections began on June 30, with polling stations closing at 8 p.m. Projections and forecasts will be published shortly after, providing initial indications before the final results. The second round of runoff voting is scheduled for July 7. The election could result in cohabitation, where the government and the president come from different political camps, a scenario that hasn't occurred in France since the end of World War II.
- In the Hauts-de-Seine department, voter participation has increased to 18.47% at noon, compared to 16.64% in the 2022 legislative elections. Polling stations will remain open until 8 p.m. to accommodate voters. The department has historically been a stronghold for Macron, but the current political climate suggests a shift.
- In Yvelines, 20.82% of voters had cast their ballots by noon, a significant increase from previous elections. However, a shortage of assessors in many polling stations could delay the counting and publication of final results. Nearly 985,000 voters are expected to participate in the early legislative elections, with 94 candidates competing for twelve seats.
- The political and economic shock following Macron's dissolution of Parliament has led to a decline in business confidence. According to the Opinion Way market research institute, only 19% of business leaders are optimistic about the French economy over the next 12 months. The CAC 40 index has seen its worst performance since June 2022, and the euro has slightly declined against the dollar.
- Strategic experts at Citi have outlined three scenarios based on the election results: a centrist coalition or minority government led by the National Rally, continued financial risks and political uncertainty, or an extremist government implementing radical measures. Each scenario carries significant implications for France's fiscal policy and economic stability.
