The first round of the 2024 legislative elections in France has set the stage for an unprecedented second round, marked by a significant increase in triangular and quadrangular contests. With a high voter turnout of 66.7%, the threshold to advance to the second round was mechanically lower, resulting in a record number of constituencies where three or even four candidates will compete.
In total, 306 constituencies are set for triangular contests, a stark contrast to the seven triangulars in 2022 and only one in 2017. Additionally, 190 duels and five quadrangulars are expected. The dominant political forces in these triangulars are the National Rally (RN), the New Popular Front (NFP), and the presidential majority, confirming the tripartite nature of the current political landscape.
The Republicans (LR), who were once a dominant force in French politics, are facing a challenging scenario. The party secured only 6.56% of the votes, a significant drop from previous elections. The alliance between LR's president, Éric Ciotti, and the National Rally limited their presence in many constituencies, resulting in only 55 LR candidates advancing to the second round.
Éric Ciotti has urged right-wing voters to reject the 'terrifying danger of the extreme left' and support the alliance with Jordan Bardella of the National Rally. This unprecedented union aims to end years of political stagnation for the right and bring Bardella to a prominent position in the government.
The upcoming second round will see intense battles, particularly between the RN and NFP, as well as between the Macronist camp and the Lepéniste movement. The results of these contests will be crucial in shaping the future political landscape of France, especially for the Republicans, who are striving to regain their influence.
- The high voter turnout in the first round has significantly impacted the dynamics of the legislative elections, lowering the threshold for advancing to the second round and increasing the number of triangular and quadrangular contests.
- The Republicans (LR) are facing a tough election cycle, with their vote share dropping to 6.56% and many of their candidates eliminated in the first round. The alliance with the National Rally has limited their presence in several constituencies.
- Éric Ciotti, the president of LR, has called on right-wing voters to support the alliance with Jordan Bardella of the National Rally, aiming to bring Bardella to a prominent government position and end years of political stagnation for the right.
