Daily Reports
Far-Right Victory Sparks Political Turmoil in France
France is witnessing a significant political upheaval following the far-right National Union Party's (RN) historic victory in the first round of parliamentary elections. Marine Le Pen's party secured 33% of the votes, leading the left-wing New Popular Front (28%) and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance, Ensemble, which garnered only 22%. This marks a second crushing defeat for Macron in a month, following a similar result in the European Parliament elections.
The RN's victory has prompted immediate and widespread reactions. Financial markets showed some relief that the National Union did not win a larger number of votes, but the political landscape in France remains tense. The RN needs at least 289 seats in parliament to achieve an absolute majority, with current projections suggesting they are on track to win between 250 to 300 seats. However, due to France's complex electoral system, these figures remain uncertain.
United Front Against the Far-Right
In response to the RN's success, France's political rivals are scrambling to form a united front to block the far-right from gaining power. The leaders of the New Popular Front coalition and Macron's Center Alliance have announced that their candidates will withdraw in districts where another candidate is in a better position to defeat the National Union candidate. This strategy aims to prevent the RN from securing an absolute majority.
Historically, center-right and center-left parties have collaborated to keep Le Pen's party out of power, a partnership known as the 'Republican Front.' However, this coalition is now more tenuous than ever. Macron, who has warned against the dangers posed by extremists on both the left and right, is now focused on stopping the National Union.
The French electoral system, which requires a candidate to win more than half of the votes in the first round to avoid a runoff, has led to approximately 300 three-way races out of the 577 electoral seats in the National Assembly. These three-way races typically benefit the far-right more than head-to-head races, but many third-place finishers have already withdrawn from about 160 races.
Implications for France and Europe
The RN's rise has significant implications for both France and Europe. Marine Le Pen's party, once considered a pariah in French politics, has managed to appeal to center-right voters frustrated with the country's security and immigration situation. The party promises large government investments despite France's heavy deficit and aims to reduce immigration. On foreign policy, the RN has moderated its previously pro-Russian stance and has committed to continuing arms supplies to Ukraine, though it opposes sending French troops.
The RN's potential to form a government has raised concerns among human rights groups and economists. The party's 'France first' policy has sparked fears about its impact on ethnic minorities, while its economic plans have been questioned for their viability. Internationally, the RN's eurosceptic stance could weaken the European Union, and its rise has been welcomed by far-right groups across Europe.
The outcome of the second round of elections will determine whether France sees a far-right government for the first time since World War II or faces a political deadlock. Macron's future as president could be significantly impacted, with potential challenges to his leadership and policies.
- The RN's success has been met with mixed reactions among the French populace. Supporters like Jean-Claude Gayet in Le Pen's stronghold of Nin-Beaumont expressed satisfaction, citing the need for change. Others, like Yamina Addo from Onis, voiced concerns about the growing tensions in French society.
- International reactions have also been notable. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Spain's Vox party welcomed Le Pen's achievements, while Spanish socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez emphasized that left-wing parties could still prevent an outright victory for the RN. Germany's foreign minister, Analana Barbuk, expressed concern about the rise of a party that views Europe as a problem rather than a solution.
- The Jewish community in France has shown a divided response. Some senior members are supporting the far-right to counter the extreme left, which they perceive as a greater threat, while the umbrella organization of French Jews, the KRIF, has rejected extremist politicians from both camps.
- The political landscape in France remains highly volatile, with the potential for significant shifts depending on the outcomes of the runoff elections. The RN's rise poses a challenge to the traditional political order, and the coming weeks will be crucial in determining the future direction of the country.
