Whether Ursula von der Leyen's EU career will continue for another five years is in the hands of the European Parliament. Today is the day of the decision, and the stakes are high. When Ursula von der Leyen steps up to the lectern in the European Parliament in Strasbourg at around 9 a.m. this morning, it will be all or nothing. This will be the last time the German has the opportunity to convince members of parliament. The group of EU heads of state and government has already nominated her for a second term as President of the European Commission, but the European Parliament has the final say.
A few hours after the speech, at 1 p.m., the more than 700 MPs will be called upon to cast their votes. If no more than half of all eligible voters vote yes, the former German minister's EU career will be over for the time being. The heads of state and government of the EU countries would have to propose a new candidate within a month.
The situation is particularly uncomfortable for von der Leyen because of the majority situation in the new European Parliament. Her centre-right EPP alliance, which also includes the CDU and CSU, clearly won the European elections at the beginning of June and, according to the latest figures, has 188 seats in the new parliament. However, almost twice as many votes are needed to achieve the necessary majority. These are to be won through an informal coalition with the European Social Democrats and Liberals and through substantive commitments to the Greens.
Von der Leyen has repeatedly stressed that, despite headwinds from business and agriculture, she stands by her program for a climate-neutral EU by 2050, known as the 'Green Deal.' However, she has to remain vague about details. Before Ursula von der Leyen is elected, the German Liberals are calling for a reversal of the ban on new combustion engine cars from 2035, which has already been decided. For the Greens, however, such a promise could prevent von der Leyen from being elected.
The matter is further complicated by the fact that the election is by secret ballot - and there is no party discipline. In 2019, von der Leyen received just nine more votes than she needed when she was elected.
This Wednesday, at an inopportune time for von der Leyen, the EU Court of Justice issued a ruling on her agency's handling of the multi-billion dollar Corona vaccine contracts. The ruling concluded that the Commission had violated EU law by keeping information secret. This could be problematic for von der Leyen because she has been accused by Parliament of lacking transparency in her conduct of office for years.
In the evening, MPs from the left-wing camp called for the vote on von der Leyen to be postponed because of the ruling until documents affected by the ruling have been released. However, it is considered extremely unlikely that the initiative will receive the necessary support in the entire parliament.
In response to the ruling, the Commission stressed that it had been largely right in the proceedings. It said that the court's criticism related in particular to the pharmaceutical industry's interests in confidentiality, which the Commission could not ignore without fearing damage as a negotiating partner.
If the vote takes place as planned at 1 p.m., there should be clarity about Ursula von der Leyen's future around 3 p.m. after the votes have been counted. National delegations recently said that informal polls among MEPs indicate that she should receive between 365 and 420 votes from the EPP, Liberals, Social Democrats and Greens camps - but these were carried out before the EU Court's ruling.
The EPP camp hopes that von der Leyen has at least been able to score points with some critical MPs with her reaction to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's solo diplomatic action in Ukraine policy. After Orban's trip to Moscow, she announced that top representatives of her institution would no longer travel to ministerial meetings organized by the Hungarian EU Council Presidency for the time being.
Von der Leyen had previously been heavily criticized for her dealings with Orban. The EU Commission was even recently sued by Parliament because, in the view of a majority of MPs, it wrongly released EU funding for Hungary.
And finally, the MPs must also ask themselves whether they want to risk plunging the EU into political chaos in the current global political situation. Even staunch opponents of von der Leyen cannot currently name anyone else who has a realistic chance of getting more votes in Parliament than von der Leyen. In addition, she was at least the lead candidate for the office this year, thus fulfilling a demand that the Parliament itself had made.
