Anticipating the European Parliament Elections Amid Political Tensions
The European Parliament elections, held every five years, are scheduled to take place from June 6 to June 9. These elections are crucial as they will determine the 705 representatives for the 450 million citizens of the European Union, spanning 27 countries with 24 different languages. As the only EU institution elected by popular vote, the renewal of the European Parliament comes at a particularly challenging time, given the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and the persistent Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The current political landscape is fraught with speculation about the potential influence of far-right groups and their capacity to alter the coalition that has historically governed the European Union since its inception in 1957. This coalition has been traditionally composed of the European People's Party (EPP), Christian Democrats, and the Conservatives, along with the Social Democrats and Liberals.
Recent polls indicate that the EPP is likely to remain the strongest political force, particularly in Germany, where an upset might occur with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) potentially displacing the Social Democrats of the PSD from the second position. This shift could significantly impact the political equilibrium of the EU. However, even with expected victories for the far-right and more hardline conservatives, it appears insufficient to dismantle the old coalition managing the European Union.
AfD has faced significant issues, including controversies surrounding its first Eurocandidate, Maximilian Krah, over his inflammatory remarks about the SS during World War II and a separate espionage scandal involving a close associate. These incidents have led to internal turmoil and external criticism, most notably from French far-right leader Marie Le Pen and Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, both of whom have distanced themselves from Krah.
In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy party continues to enjoy substantial popularity. Polls assign her party a lead of four points over the center-left Democratic Party, translating into a projected 22 seats in the European Parliament, a significant increase from the current six. Meanwhile, her coalition partners, including the remnants of Silvio Berlusconi's party and Salvini's League, are experiencing varied levels of support.
The broader implications of these elections have been a central theme in recent debates within the European Parliament. Major political formations, from conservative Ursula von der Leyen's EPP to socialist candidate Nicholas Schmit and the liberal Sandro Gozi, have all weighed in on the issue of alliances, particularly concerning the far-right. Despite these tensions, it is anticipated that the traditional pro-European parties, EPP, S&D, and Renew, will continue to dominate the parliament, barring any unforeseen shifts in voter sentiment.
- The debate surrounding the European Parliament elections has highlighted the deep divisions and the high stakes involved. Despite significant criticism and the exclusion of certain far-right groups from formal discussions due to the lack of a main candidate, these groups are projected to gain strength, particularly the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) factions.
- Observers have noted the strategic positioning of Ursula von der Leyen, who has maintained a cautious approach to potential post-election alliances, particularly with right-leaning groups like ECR, where Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy play a significant role. This pragmatic stance underscores the delicate balance Von der Leyen aims to achieve to ensure stable governance within the EU.
