Relations between Ethiopia and Somalia have significantly soured recently, particularly following Ethiopia's maritime agreement with Somaliland, a breakaway region. This deal, which grants Ethiopia access to 20 kilometers of Somaliland's coast on the Gulf of Aden for 50 years, has further strained ties with Somalia, especially as Ethiopia accuses Somalia of collaborating with Egypt, perceived as a destabilizing force in the Horn of Africa.
The new African Union-led mission, AMISOM, set to begin in January 2025, is expected to replace the previous ATMIS mission, which focused on combating the al-Shabaab militant group. Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry has expressed concerns that this transition could lead the region into a precarious situation, as tensions are already high due to military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia.
Egypt has also intensified its military involvement in Somalia, sending a significant shipment of military equipment and planning to deploy troops following the withdrawal of ATMIS forces. This military cooperation underscores the growing rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly over the contentious Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River, which Egypt views as a direct threat to its water security.
As the Horn of Africa grapples with multiple security challenges, the international community is urged to bolster peace efforts in Somalia, which has faced decades of conflict. The evolving dynamics between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt pose significant risks to the stability of the region, necessitating close monitoring and intervention to prevent further escalation.
