The U.S. administration's approach to HTS reflects a broader strategy of engaging with groups previously classified as terrorists in the context of geopolitical shifts in Syria.
The potential delisting of HTS could signal a significant change in U.S. foreign policy, particularly in relation to the Middle East and its stance on terrorism.
The debate around HTS highlights the complexities of post-conflict governance and the challenges of rebuilding a war-torn country while managing security concerns.
If HTS successfully implements reforms and stabilizes its governance, it may lead to a reevaluation of its terrorist designation by the U.S.
The situation in Syria could evolve into a power struggle between various factions, including extremist groups, if the new government fails to establish legitimacy and control.
Increased U.S. engagement with HTS may influence the dynamics of regional politics, particularly in relation to Israel and neighboring countries.
With Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) taking control of Damascus on December 8, a significant debate has emerged in Washington regarding the potential removal of the group from the U.S. terrorist lists. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's confirmation of direct contacts with HTS underscores the importance of dialogue with a group designated as a terrorist organization, especially as the U.S. aims for a peaceful political transition in Syria. Blinken outlined conditions for recognizing a new Syrian government, including respect for minority rights and the prevention of terrorism.
The legal framework for delisting HTS includes two main criteria: a change in the circumstances that led to its designation or a determination that U.S. national security interests justify the revocation. Experts like Ambassador Frederic Hof and historian Juan Cole suggest that the U.S. may consider lifting the terrorist classification if HTS demonstrates necessary reforms and possibly recognizes Israel. However, concerns remain about Syria becoming a haven for extremist groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS if the new government fails to provide stability and services.
Matthew Levitt from the Washington Institute emphasizes the need for caution in lifting sanctions on HTS, advocating for a policy based on verifying actions rather than trusting new Syrian officials' words. The future of U.S. policy toward Syria will hinge on the new leadership's ability to govern effectively and prevent the resurgence of terrorism.
