The cries of joy from the hundred or so supporters of Danielle Simonnet attenuated the feeling of a “cold shower” felt after the announcement of the national results and the historic breakthrough of the National Rally. In front of the Berbère Rock Café, rue des Pyrénées, next to the campaign headquarters of the outgoing MP in the 20th arrondissement of Paris, there was applause and cries of “Resistance!” as Danielle Simonnet announced, this Sunday shortly after 10 p.m., that she had won the first round of the legislative elections in the 15th constituency of Paris.
The dissident candidate, not nominated by her original party, La France insoumise, within the New Popular Front, actually came out on top with 41.87% of the votes, at the end of a ballot where 70% of voters went to the polls. “There is both joy at having won victory, but also a lot of sadness and anger at the situation in the country, which is extremely serious,” reacted Danielle Simonnet after thanking her activists. We are proud of our campaign and we know that we will win in the second round, but we do not want to show off.”
The polls were right. While the French were called to the polls this Sunday for the first round of early legislative elections, three weeks after the dissolution initiated by Emmanuel Macron, voters confirmed the trend already observed in the European elections on June 9. The “union of the rights” led by the National Rally – and reinforced by the “ciottists” – is well ahead with 34.2% of the votes at national level, according to initial Ifop estimates. Thanks to this increase of nearly sixteen points compared to the last legislative elections of 2022, the “national camp” could collect between 240 and 270 seats during the second round, scheduled for July 7.
Gathered under the banner of the New Popular Front despite strong differences, the left finished second, with 29.1% of the vote. Which would allow them to obtain between 180 and 200 deputies next week. That is to say around forty elected officials more than the outgoing contingent of Nupes.
The Macronist label “Together!” closes the podium and obtains 21.5% of the ballots. If the presidential camp saves the furniture somewhat this Sunday in national percentage, it expects a very difficult second round. Having gone on campaign with 250 deputies, the central bloc could suffer big losses next week. Caught between its competitors on the left and the right, the outgoing majority would only have between 60 to 90 seats.
The right is the surprise of this first round. Estimated at around 6-7% in the latest polls, the Republicans won 10% of the vote. If the party founded by Nicolas Sarkozy regains color, its parliamentary group could lose 30 to 50 deputies.
- Danielle Simonnet's victory in the 15th constituency of Paris is a significant milestone for her and her supporters. Despite not being nominated by her original party, she managed to secure a strong lead with 41.87% of the votes.
- The national results, however, paint a different picture with the National Rally leading with 34.2% of the votes. This surge indicates a potential shift in the political landscape of France, with the National Rally expected to secure between 240 and 270 seats in the upcoming second round.
- The New Popular Front, despite internal differences, managed to secure 29.1% of the vote, positioning them second. This could translate to a gain of around forty more deputies compared to their previous count.
- The Macronist camp, under the label “Together!”, faces a challenging second round with only 21.5% of the votes. Their expected seat count could drop significantly, reflecting the growing competition from both the left and right.
- The Republicans, initially estimated to secure around 6-7% of the votes, surprised many by winning 10%. This resurgence could still result in a loss of 30 to 50 deputies, but it shows a potential revival for the party founded by Nicolas Sarkozy.
