The recent death of Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's president, has generated a whirlwind of international responses. Charles Michel, the EU Council President, sparked controversy with his tweet expressing condolences to Iran. Millions viewed the tweet, and it ignited a heated debate: Should the EU be extending condolences to a regime known for severe human rights violations? EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also extended his sympathies, though the European Union had recently expanded sanctions against Iran. Critics argue that the EU's expressions of sympathy are misplaced, highlighting Michel's lack of sensitivity to the victims of Iran's oppressive regime.
Germany's political response has been particularly scathing. CDU minister Karin Prien criticized Michel, stating that the EU's solidarity should be with the victims of Iran's potent regime. Her sentiments were echoed by Dennis Radtke from the European Parliament, who posted drastic images of Iranian regime opponents who had been executed. The Green Party's Volker Beck also expressed his disgust, calling Michel's actions a 'lack of attitude.' Notably, Ursula von der Leyen, the EU Commission President, remained silent, refraining from any public expression of condolence.
Globally, responses to Raisi's death vary significantly. Russian President Vladimir Putin praised Raisi as a 'true friend,' and Chinese officials referred to him as a 'good friend' of the Chinese people. Turkish President Erdogan also offered heartfelt prayers, while terrorist organizations like Hamas expressed their condolences. The UN Security Council marked the occasion with a minute's silence. Despite these formal gestures, experts argue that such condolences are a diplomatic custom and do not necessarily imply support for the regime itself. For example, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, tied his official condolences to support for the Iranian people’s fight for human rights and freedoms.
Amid the wave of condolences, Raisi's funeral attracted foreign dignitaries from 68 countries. Leaders from Turkey, India, China, and regional neighbors attended, along with representatives from Saudi Arabia and the UAE—countries that have previously sought a rapprochement with Iran. The massive turnout demonstrated the regime's ability to mobilize its population, despite the internal polarization and background of repression. Analysts highlight that this is a critical moment for Iran, particularly as it is entangled in regional conflicts, such as the war in Gaza.
The death of Raisi has prompted discussions about Iran's political future, especially with impending presidential elections required by the constitution within 50 days. The elections could either stabilize or further inflame the already volatile political environment. The outcome could also impact the succession plans for the ailing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Historically, Iran's elections have been tightly controlled, with the Guardian Council disqualifying many viable candidates. Analysts caution that without significant changes, the regime is likely to maintain its repressive hold on power, opting for a status quo that would continue to isolate the young and frustrated population.
Ultimately, Raisi's presidency was marked by loyalty to Supreme Leader Khamenei, unlike his predecessors who either sought autonomy or showed subtle resistance. His death, while not a game-changing event like that of General Qassem Soleimani, nonetheless arrives at a precarious time for Iran. The unfolding political dynamics and the upcoming elections could either open a path towards stabilization or exacerbate existing tensions.
- Historically, state-level condolences are a common diplomatic practice following the death of a government official or natural disasters. Experts argue that while these gestures are customary, the nuances in wording are significant. Simple expressions of sympathy might not signify support for the regime but are rather a means of maintaining open diplomatic channels.
- Ebrahim Raisi's presidency was largely unremarkable compared to his predecessors. He followed the directives of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei without displaying the charisma or autonomy seen in previous Iranian presidents. His tenure saw increasing repression of Iran's youth and a widening gap between the government and its population. The upcoming elections present a critical juncture for Iran, with potential consequences for both internal stability and international relations.
