Daily Reports
China Conducts Major Military Exercises Around Taiwan
China's military has embarked on intensive two-day exercises around Taiwan, testing its capabilities to seize control of the island amidst rising political tensions. These maneuvers, named “Joint Sword-2024A”, involve the army, navy, air force, and rocket unit, and aim to evaluate joint operations, control of key territories, and punitive measures against what Beijing deems as separatist activities.
Li Xi, spokesman for the People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command, emphasized the exercises’ goal of verifying the ability to seize power and execute joint attacks. This recent development follows the inauguration of Taiwan's new president, William Lai, whose presidency is seen by Beijing as a move toward Taiwan's independence, a notion Beijing fervently opposes.
On the first day of the exercises, 49 jets were detected by Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, along with the presence of 15 naval ships and 16 coast guard units, marking a significant show of force. The operation, which started unexpectedly, includes the deployment of the coast guard—a new strategic move reflecting the
Kinmen Model
according to analysts. This tactic focuses on areas where Taiwan has not declared baselines and territorial waters, hence circumventing international rules.
International Reactions and Taiwan’s Response
Taiwan's government was quick to react, mobilizing its armed forces and asserting that it will defend its sovereignty against what it describes as Beijing's irrational provocation. Addressing the Taiwanese military at the Taoyuan base, President Lai expressed his commitment to freedom and democracy, stating that he would be on the front lines to defend national security and regional stability.
The geopolitical tension has ripple effects internationally. The UN has appealed for restraint from all parties to avoid escalating tensions further. Meanwhile, the United States has stated it is closely monitoring the situation and has called for China to show restraint. Despite these international calls for peace, China maintains its stance that Taiwan is a breakaway province destined for reunification, potentially by force if necessary.
This military operation is also symbolic, reflecting China’s strategic signaling of its intentions and military capabilities. Analysts, such as Mick Ryan from the Lowy Institute, note that these large-scale activities are intended to normalize military presence around Taiwan, apply pressure to Taiwan’s democratic government, and project an air of inevitability over Taiwan's future under Chinese control. This tactic draws parallels with Russia's approach in Ukraine, as per expert observers.
The exercises come after the visit of the Kremlin’s head to Beijing, underscoring the strengthened alliance between China and Russia. This military demonstration, coupled with political gestures, aims to convey a resolute stance against Taiwan’s moves towards official independence, a critical red line for Beijing. As Taiwan continues to align more closely with the US and other Western countries, the urgency and tension from the Chinese leadership have noticeably increased.
In his inauguration speech, President Lai underscored the importance of democracy and affirmed that Taiwan and China are not subordinate to each other, which fueled Beijing’s decision to initiate the punitive exercises. Moving forward, the dynamics in the Taiwan Strait are likely to remain a focal point of international diplomatic and military attention.
- Beijing's approach towards Taiwan has evolved over the years to include a mix of aggressive military posturing and diplomatic efforts aimed at discouraging any moves toward formal independence by the island. Analysts suggest that these military exercises serve multiple purposes; they act as a form of psychological warfare to unnerve Taiwan’s government and its populace, while also serving as live training exercises for Chinese forces.
- The involvement of China's coast guard for the first time in such a major exercise is noteworthy. This move hints at the possible strategies Beijing might employ in a real conflict scenario, using a combination of military and civilian maritime forces to achieve its objectives. This mimics the 'gray zone' tactics that China has previously applied in the South China Sea, blurring the lines between military and non-military operations.
- The tension around Taiwan is not just a bilateral issue but one that has significant implications for regional and global security. As Taiwan is a crucial player in the global semiconductor industry, any conflict in the region could have far-reaching economic consequences. Moreover, the island's strategic location makes it a critical point of interest for major powers, including the United States, which has long maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding its defense commitments to Taiwan.
