Surge in Youth Voter Turnout in France's 2024 Elections
The 2024 elections in France saw a significant increase in voter turnout among the 18-24 age group. According to multiple polling institutes, 57% of young people participated in the elections, compared to just 30% in 2022. This surge in youth participation has primarily benefited the left-wing parties.
A survey by Harris Interactive for Challenges, M6, and RTL revealed that 41% of the 18-24 year-olds voted for the New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing coalition, while 23% supported the far-right National Rally (RN). In contrast, only 13% voted for the presidential camp, and 8% for the Republicans (LR). Another survey by Ipsos Talan for France Télévisions, Radio France, and Public Senate found even higher support for the NFP at 48%, with the RN receiving 33% of the youth vote.
Strategic Withdrawals to Block Far-Right Majority
In an unprecedented move, more than 200 candidates from President Emmanuel Macron's centrist party and the left-wing alliance withdrew from the second-round parliamentary elections to prevent the far-right RN from gaining an absolute majority. This tactic aimed to consolidate votes and reduce the chances of the RN securing the 289 seats needed for a majority.
Despite these efforts, the RN and its allies still managed to secure the first place in the initial round, with Macron's centrist camp coming in third, behind the left-wing bloc. Anti-far-right protests erupted in Paris following the results, highlighting the political tension in the country.
The NFP, a coalition advocating for policies like lowering the retirement age and raising taxes on the wealthy, also withdrew its candidates who came third in the first round. This move was part of a broader strategy to prevent the RN from gaining more seats. Notably, Leslie Mortreux, the only publicly declared transgender candidate, stepped aside to support a right-wing candidate against an RN rival.
Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and other Macron allies called on their supporters to prevent the far-right from taking office, although some were hesitant to endorse leftist candidates. Marine Le Pen, leader of the RN, criticized these withdrawals, calling them a contempt for voters.
Projections suggest that the RN will likely fall short of an absolute majority, winning between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat lower house. If the RN fails to secure a majority, Macron may have to seek support from the left or other political groups to form a government.
- During the last European elections, young voters also showed a preference for La France Insoumise (LFI) over other age groups. In the 2022 legislative elections, 18-24 year-olds voted 34.9% for Nupes in the first round, and 8.7% for the rest of the left, while 17.5% supported Macron's camp and 14.1% the RN.
- Analyst Antoine Bristielle noted that the strategic withdrawals by centrist and left-wing candidates could prevent the RN from achieving an absolute majority. This tactic has reduced the number of three-candidate races from over 300 to less than 100.
- In speeches before the first round, National Rally leader Jordan Bardella stated he would refuse to govern a minority government, which would require votes from allies to pass laws. If the RN fails to win an absolute majority, Macron might have to look for a prime minister from the left or other political groups.
- If the RN wins an absolute majority, it would mark the first time a far-right party has entered the French government since World War II, a scenario that many in France are keen to avoid.
