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WMO Predicts End of El Niño, Signals La Niña Onset Amid Continuing Climate Threats

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WMO forecasts a shift from El Niño to La Niña, bringing cooler temperatures but climate change remains a persistent threat. Learn about the global impacts and necessary climate actions.

The World Weather Organization (WMO) predicts the imminent end of the El Niño weather phenomenon, signaling the onset of La Niña conditions. Expected to develop between August and November, La Niña is associated with cooler upper water layers of the tropical eastern Pacific. This shift could bring increased rainfall to regions such as North and Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of East Africa, although Europe is unlikely to feel its effects strongly.

El Niño, notorious for inducing higher global temperatures and exacerbating extreme weather events, notably peaked in December. This phenomenon, which occurs every two to seven years, has contributed to making 2023 the warmest year on record since industrialization began. Despite the transition to La Niña, which may bring relatively cooler weather, the overarching challenge of climate change persists.

The WMO underscores that the overarching threat of climate change is far from mitigated solely by periodic weather phenomena like El Niño and La Niña. The buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases continues to elevate global temperatures, leading to more extreme and unpredictable weather patterns. Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the WMO, emphasizes that despite short-term cool downs, the Earth's climate is progressively warming due to these gases.

While weather phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña highlight the fluctuation in global temperatures, the broader context of climate change should not be sidelined. Efforts to combat global warming have struggled against immediate concerns such as economic crises and political instability. Despite these obstacles, the impacts of climate inaction are becoming increasingly visible and severe.

At the current rate, global temperatures are increasing by 0.5°C every 20 years, which could double if adequate measures are not taken. With potential heat peaks reaching 54°C in cities like Paris by 2060, various sectors, including agriculture, transportation, and public health, face significant threats. Forests and ecosystems are also at risk due to increased forest fires and insect infestations.

Economic ramifications are equally dire, with studies indicating that a 1°C rise in global temperature can lead to a 12% drop in global GDP within six years. Since 1960, a 0.75°C increase has already slowed global economic growth, which would be 37% higher today without this warming effect. A temperature rise of 2°C by 2100 could cut the global GDP by 50%.

  • The second article underscores the necessity for immediate and concerted action on climate change. Celebrated annually since 1973, World Environment Day serves as a call to action for environmental protection. Despite growing awareness, ongoing wars and economic crises have often overshadowed climate initiatives. The phenomenon of relegating future threats to a secondary concern, described by Daniel Kahneman and George Loewenstein, exacerbates this issue.
  • The rate of global warming, currently at an alarming pace, demands intensified efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Failing to do so threatens agricultural production, transportation infrastructure, public health, and forest ecosystems. According to the World Bank, without rapid intervention, over 216 million people could become internal climate migrants by 2050.
  • Echoing historical examples, the article suggests that businesses play a crucial role in addressing climate change. Much like medieval guilds and 19th-century industrialists led social innovation prior to government intervention, modern companies are urged to spearhead climate action. Immediate mobilization is essential not only to drive change but also to mitigate the short-term impacts of climate disruption on business operations.
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Refs: | Le Figaro | Merkur |

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