Daily Reports
Ukraine Pushes for Global South Participation in Peace Conference
As the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland approaches, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj is intensifying efforts to secure attendance from major states in the Global South. With participation seen as crucial for the success of peace talks, the Ukrainian government, supported by its allies, is reaching out to countries like India, Brazil, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and even China. Despite China having initially canceled, Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met his counterpart in Beijing to petition for China’s involvement.
Security expert Kurt Volker posits that China might still send a lower-ranking official to the conference, which would be a minor but noteworthy achievement for Ukraine. Volker stresses that the West needs to demonstrate that it is in China's best interest to participate constructively, highlighting Beijing's interest in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction. More than 160 countries have been invited to the conference, which will take place on June 15th and 16th. The list of attendees, however, will only be revealed shortly before the event.
Delicate Geopolitical Balances and Western Support
Vice President Kamala Harris and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will represent the USA, and a meeting between President Joe Biden and Zelenskyj is scheduled prior to the conference. Notably, Russia is not on the invitation list. The recruitment drive for the conference has encountered resistance from Moscow, which is working to dissuade developing nations from participating.
India’s commitment, though not yet formalized regarding attendees, is seen as a victory for Ukraine. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured that India will voice the concerns of the Global South at the summit. In contrast, Brazil has declined to participate, preferring to push its own peace initiatives in collaboration with China. Other countries like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and South Africa have also opted out.
Potential for Negotiation and Peace Processes
Amidst fluctuating geopolitical dynamics and internal pressures, Zelenskyj faces a tough road ahead. The discussions at the conference will focus on parts of Zelensky's 10-point peace plan, including the return of kidnapped Ukrainian children, the exchange of prisoners, and nuclear safety. A joint declaration referencing the United Nations Charter is anticipated. Amongst the risks and challenges, the gathering could mark a pivotal step towards peace, exemplifying international unity against Russian aggression.
However, Zelensky himself is under immense pressure. According to experts, negotiating an end to the war while recovering nothing but lost territory, particularly after promising victories, will be difficult. Zelensky's hardline nationalist opponents and the imperative for Western support add layers of complexity. Diplomatic channels could provide a way out, yet they necessitate balancing domestic commitments and international peace efforts sensitively.
- International negotiations may absolve Zelensky of personal responsibility, shifting the burden of pressuring for peace onto the United States. However, such diplomatic undertakings may come at the cost of perceived American and NATO credibility.
- At previous negotiations, such as the Istanbul talks, Ukraine and Russia had nearly reached an agreement. It suggests that despite setbacks, diplomatic solutions are possible, but they will require comprehensive security arrangements extending beyond bilateral agreements to include a broader European security framework.
- Instead of NATO expanding to Russia's borders, efforts could focus on creating a new European security architecture that incorporates cooperation with Russia. This shift could relieve pressures from bilateral commitments and pave the way for enduring peace and stability in Europe.
