Ukraine's Strategic Attacks on Russian Economy
Ukraine has intensified its offensive against Russian economic infrastructure, specifically targeting oil refineries. On June 18, 2024, Ukrainian drones attacked oil refineries in the southern Russian city of Azov in Rostov Oblast. This operation, reportedly orchestrated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), caused severe fires but no casualties. The SBU has vowed to continue such 'drone sanctions' to cripple Russia's economic capacity to sustain its military operations.
The targeted attacks on oil depots are part of a broader strategy that has seen significant disruptions in Russia's energy supplies. For instance, in April 2024, Ukrainian forces hit oil depots at Rosneft in Yarzewo and Razdorovo, resulting in massive fires and evacuation of personnel. These attacks are forcing Russia to consider importing gasoline from neighboring Belarus to mitigate domestic shortages.
Russia's Geopolitical Maneuvers and North Korean Support
In a parallel development, Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to strengthen alliances with authoritarian regimes to counterbalance the economic and military pressure from Ukraine and Western sanctions. Putin is scheduled to visit North Korea, where a 'strategic partnership' treaty could be signed. This visit underscores the growing cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, which has been a cause of concern for the West.
North Korea has reportedly been supplying munitions to Russia in exchange for technological, diplomatic, and food assistance. This alliance is perceived as a threat by NATO and Western countries, who accuse Russia of violating UN sanctions imposed on North Korea. The deepening relationship between Russia and North Korea could have broader implications, not only for the conflict in Ukraine but also for the security of the Korean Peninsula.
- The increased Ukrainian drone attacks have led to significant disruptions in Russia's oil supply chain, compelling President Putin to look for alternative sources like Belarus. According to a March 2024 analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia had increased its gasoline imports from Belarus to almost 3,000 tons in the first half of March to counteract potential shortages.
- Meanwhile, the visit to North Korea marks only the second time Putin has traveled to the country, the first being nearly a quarter of a century ago. This visit comes amid heightened tensions on the inter-Korean border, where incidents of North Korean soldiers crossing into South Korean territory have been reported. South Korea, a significant supporter of Ukraine, is closely monitoring the situation.
- NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has highlighted the extent to which Russia is now dependent on authoritarian regimes like North Korea, Iran, and China for support in its war efforts. The international community, led by the United States and European nations, is being urged to counter this 'virile friendship' by increasing arms deliveries to Ukraine.
