As former President Donald Trump, the US Republican presidential candidate, faces a guilty verdict in the 'sexual scandal hush money' case, its potential impact on the upcoming presidential election remains under scrutiny. This ruling makes Trump the first former US president to be criminally indicted while actively running for office, creating an unusually precarious political atmosphere.
In theory, this conviction could benefit President Joe Biden. Although Trump's ability to run for the presidency is not legally hindered by this conviction, the judicial risks could potentially drive some of his supporters to rethink their stance. According to an ABC public opinion poll, 4% of respondents who previously supported Trump indicated they would withdraw their support if he were found guilty, and 16% stated they would reconsider their decision.
The competition between Trump and Biden remains close, with Trump only leading by 1.2 percentage points in a comprehensive analysis by The Hill. If Trump appeals the verdict, he would find himself embroiled in legal battles during his campaign, possibly affecting his campaign funds and effectiveness.
While Biden is actively campaigning in key battleground states, Trump's legal troubles might consolidate anti-Trump voters out of fear of his return to power. Despite the guilty verdict, Trump’s vigorous denial and appeals for support have resonated with his base, which might see the trial as a politically motivated move.
Interestingly, his supporters' rallying around him amid repeated indictments has led to increased approval ratings and campaign donations. Trump's declaration of a rigged trial and calls for his supporters to rally could reinforce his narrative of political victimization, thus maintaining his core support base.
However, media outlets like PBS predict that the trial results will likely cement already formed opinions rather than sway undecided voters significantly. Nicholas Higgins, a political science researcher, suggests that this hyperpolarized political atmosphere causes voters to vote against the candidate they dislike the most rather than for a candidate they support. Therefore, the verdict's impact might not drastically change public opinion.
Legal experts like Jared Carter from Vermont Law School believe that even a marginal drop in Trump's votes could be critical in deciding the election, especially in the key battleground states. Furthermore, many voters see the 'sexual scandal hush money' case as less serious compared to other charges Trump faces.
Meanwhile, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon has outlined plans for significant reforms in federal agencies, targeting the Justice Department and FBI, should Trump be re-elected. These plans reflect the Heritage Foundation's 'Project 2025,' aimed at restructuring the state to align with Trump's agenda, including simplifying the firing process for federal employees.
Despite Trump's campaign team denying connections to these plans, the Democratic National Committee claims Trump and his allies cannot credibly distance themselves from such ideologies. Trump's re-election promises include continuing efforts to dismantle public services and replace civil servants with loyalists, a move initially thwarted by Biden's administration.
Trump’s allies, including former Defense Department official Kash Patel, advocate for accountability and restructuring within federal agencies, reflecting a broader goal of combating what Trump sees as the 'deep state.' If re-elected, Trump plans to 'eradicate' those he perceives as threats to his vision for the country, intensifying his political crusade.
- In this hyperpolarized political environment, the allegations against Trump and his subsequent conviction are likely reinforcing pre-existing views rather than changing minds. As Nicholas Higgins noted, voters are more focused on rejecting the candidate they dislike the most.
- Despite Trump's legal challenges, some poll results reveal limited interest from the American public. A YouGov poll found that only 26% of respondents were interested in the trial related to the 'sexual scandal hush money' payments, while 31% found it boring.
- In the broader picture, Trump's legal battles also raise questions about the strength and impartiality of the judicial system. Bannon's remarks about the Justice Department and FBI suggest a narrative of corruption that resonates with Trump's base, who view these institutions with skepticism.
