The Fall of Bashar al-Assad: A Turning Point in Syrian History
The recent announcement by rebels led by radical Islamists regarding the fall of President Bashar al-Assad marks a significant shift in the ongoing Syrian civil war. After nearly 14 years of conflict, the insurgents have taken control of major cities, including the capital, Damascus, prompting questions about the future of Syria and the implications for the region. Professor Gilles Kepel, in his latest book "The Upheaval of the World: After October 7," describes this event as a crucial manifestation of a broader global upheaval, particularly affecting Iran and Israel.
With Assad's escape from Damascus, the likelihood of his return to power appears virtually impossible. His regime, which has relied heavily on support from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, is now in disarray. The Syrian army has also declared the end of Assad's government, leaving a power vacuum that could lead to further instability. The Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has emerged as the most powerful faction among the rebels, previously had ties to terrorist organizations but has recently adopted a more diplomatic stance under its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani. However, concerns remain about the potential for violence and human rights abuses under HTS rule.
Regional Implications and Future Prospects
The fall of Assad has significant implications for Iran, which has lost a key ally in its regional strategy. Tehran's financial and military support for Assad was aimed at maintaining a corridor to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the collapse of his regime is seen as a major setback for Iranian influence in the region. Critics argue that Iran's miscalculations in Syria have resulted in wasted resources and strategic losses, with the recent events being compared to the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Israel is closely monitoring the situation, viewing Assad's fall as beneficial to its security interests. The disruption of the land corridor between Iran and the Mediterranean is expected to hinder Hezbollah's rearmament efforts. Analysts suggest that the collapse of Assad's rule could lead to a regional chain reaction, potentially improving prospects for peace in Gaza and diminishing the threat from Hamas and Hezbollah.
As the power dynamics in Syria shift, the roles of external players like Russia, Turkey, and the United States will also evolve. Russia, which has supported Assad throughout the conflict, may seek to maintain its military presence in the region while navigating the new political landscape. Turkey's involvement, particularly regarding its interests in northern Syria and the repatriation of refugees, will be crucial in shaping future developments. Meanwhile, the U.S. military presence in Syria, aimed at combating ISIS, may face changes under the incoming Trump administration, which has expressed a desire to limit American involvement in the conflict.
The fate of millions of Syrian refugees remains uncertain as the country grapples with its new reality. With over three million refugees in Turkey and millions more displaced across the region, the potential for safe returns will depend on the stability of the new regime and the security situation in Syria.
