The Syrian regime's reliance on external support has significantly weakened, particularly with the shifting focus of Russia and the impact of Israeli military actions.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's rise as a dominant force among Syrian rebels indicates a potential shift in the power dynamics of the Syrian conflict, with implications for future governance in the region.
The situation in Aleppo could serve as a catalyst for further instability in Syria, with the potential for extremist groups to exploit the regime's vulnerabilities.
If the Syrian regime loses control of Aleppo, it may lead to a domino effect, causing further territorial losses in other regions.
The weakening of the Assad regime could embolden other opposition groups and potentially lead to a resurgence of extremist factions in Syria.
Increased instability in Syria may prompt neighboring countries to reassess their security strategies, particularly concerning the Golan Heights.
The Israeli newspaper, "The Jerusalem Post," has reported that the Syrian regime, led by President Bashar al-Assad, is facing a significant threat of losing the northern city of Aleppo to opposition forces, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. This shift is attributed to the weakening support from Iran and recent military setbacks, including strikes by Israel against Iranian positions in Syria. The analysis by Seth J. Frantzman highlights that this moment marks a critical juncture in the Syrian conflict, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham poised to deliver a substantial blow to the Assad regime, which had previously relied heavily on Iranian and Russian backing.
The article notes the historical context of the conflict, recalling the pivotal role played by Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of Iran's Quds Force, in securing Russian military intervention in Syria. Soleimani's absence, along with the current focus of Russia on the Ukraine conflict, has left the Syrian regime vulnerable. The regime's previous reliance on thousands of Hezbollah fighters and Iranian support has diminished, leading to its current precarious position in Aleppo.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has evolved from its al-Qaeda affiliations, is now recognized as the most independent and formidable faction among the Syrian rebels. The group has successfully captured numerous villages and is advancing towards Aleppo, showcasing its military capabilities. The article warns that if the Syrian regime collapses in Aleppo, it may have broader implications, potentially allowing the Islamic State to regain strength or prompting Iraqi militias to enter Syria, thereby threatening the stability of the Golan Heights.
