The rapid expansion of opposition control in Aleppo suggests a potential shift in the balance of power in the Syrian conflict, challenging the perception of stability under Assad's regime.
The successful use of drones and advanced weaponry indicates a significant evolution in the tactics employed by the Syrian opposition, reflecting a more organized and capable fighting force than in previous years.
The current military dynamics may lead to increased regional tensions, as various international powers reassess their strategies and alliances in response to the changing landscape of the Syrian conflict.
The Syrian opposition's recent successes may embolden them to launch further offensives, potentially leading to a protracted conflict as they attempt to consolidate their gains.
Increased military support from external allies could further enhance the opposition's capabilities, complicating the situation for Assad's forces and their allies.
The conflict's escalation may provoke a stronger response from Russia and Iran, who may seek to reassert control over contested regions.
The Syrian opposition launched a significant military operation, dubbed "Deterrence of Aggression," on November 27, 2024, targeting government forces in Idlib. This marked a notable escalation in the conflict, as it was the first breach of the contact lines since the Turkish-Russian agreement in 2020. The operation quickly expanded, with the opposition factions capturing control of Aleppo Governorate within three days, raising questions about the stability of the Syrian government under Bashar al-Assad.
The opposition factions have significantly upgraded their arsenal since 2013, now utilizing heavy machine guns, anti-aircraft missiles, and even tanks. Much of this equipment has been acquired from government stockpiles, but local manufacturing and external support also play crucial roles. The use of drones has become a game-changer, allowing for effective reconnaissance and targeted strikes against government forces.
The BGM-71 TOW missile has emerged as a critical weapon for the opposition, enabling them to effectively neutralize armored vehicles. Additionally, man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) have been employed to counter low-flying aircraft, showcasing the evolving tactics of the opposition forces. Recent videos indicate that they have also captured advanced air defense systems, further bolstering their capabilities.
