The economic collapse of Syria under Assad's regime has created a humanitarian crisis, with millions facing poverty and food insecurity.
The control of oil fields by the Syrian Democratic Forces complicates the energy landscape in Syria, as the regime struggles to regain economic stability.
The establishment of a new transitional government may signal a shift in power dynamics and a potential path towards recovery, but significant challenges remain.
If the Assad regime's rule ends, there may be a gradual economic recovery in Syria, supported by regional countries such as Türkiye.
The new transitional government may face significant challenges in addressing past human rights abuses and restoring public trust.
Continued international sanctions and geopolitical tensions could hinder Syria's recovery efforts, particularly in the energy sector.
The regime of Bashar al-Assad has left Syria's economy in a dire state, with estimates indicating a staggering 85% decline in GDP since the onset of the civil war in 2011. The World Bank and other international organizations report that Syria's GDP has plummeted to approximately $9 billion, with projections of a further 1.5% contraction this year. The agricultural sector has also suffered, with cultivated land decreasing by 25%. Foreign trade has drastically fallen, with exports down 89% and imports down 81%. The Syrian pound has lost significant value, leading to rampant inflation.
In the energy sector, Syria has not exported oil since 2011 due to international sanctions, resulting in a heavy reliance on fuel imports from Iran. Oil production has drastically decreased from 383,000 barrels per day before the war to just 40,000 barrels per day in 2023. The Syrian Democratic Forces control key oil fields, while Russian military presence remains significant in the region.
Amidst these economic challenges, a new interim government has been established, led by Mohammad al-Bashir, who will oversee the transitional phase until March 2025. The government aims to implement security measures and address past human rights abuses, including the torture of political prisoners. Recent reports indicate that rebel forces have uncovered evidence of torture and mass executions in military prisons, highlighting the regime's brutal legacy.
