Sweden on High Alert: Potential Russian Attack on Gotland Island
Sweden's military chief, Micael Bydén, has issued a stark warning about a potential Russian attack on the strategically vital island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea. Nestled between the Swedish mainland and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, Gotland's location is pivotal for military strategists. 'Putin’s goal is to gain control of the Baltic Sea,' Bydén underscored, emphasizing that whoever holds Gotland can dominate the entire region.
Experts suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin could target Gotland using missiles from Kaliningrad. Russian media has repeatedly shown Gotland as a potential target when discussing military scenarios involving the Baltic states. However, would Putin dare to attack a NATO member state such as Sweden? Robin Allers, a professor at the Norwegian School of Defense in Oslo, believes that a Ukrainian defeat might provoke the West to become a direct party to the conflict, which could encourage Putin to act more aggressively elsewhere. Although, Allers cautions against ruling out any possibilities despite doubts about an immediate NATO country attack.
Growing Importance of the Baltic Sea in NATO's Defense Strategy
The Baltic Sea's strategic importance for NATO has escalated significantly. Political scientist Julian Pawlak from the University of the Bundeswehr in Hamburg notes that the sea is crucial in NATO's defense strategies. The air and sea routes across the Baltic Sea, alongside the narrow land connections between Poland and Lithuania, are vital for defending the three Baltic states. In the event of a conflict, Russia could threaten these supply lines, making islands like Gotland and Denmark’s Bornholm critical defense points.
Despite Russia’s currently limited maritime capabilities in the Baltic Sea, the situation remains precarious. The Swedish chief’s warnings draw attention to the region’s strategic importance and potential risks posed by Russia’s growing military capabilities. Notably, Sweden’s proximity makes it an ideal control point for NATO to manage troop and supply movements, heightening the island's significance.
The Shadow Fleet and Environmental Risks in the Baltic Sea
Adding another layer of complexity, Sweden's army chief has highlighted the ominous presence of a so-called 'shadow fleet' of over 1,000 dilapidated tankers in the Baltic Sea. These tankers, shipping Russian oil to markets bypassing Western sanctions, pose significant safety and environmental threats. Many of these aging vessels operate near Gotland, purportedly transferring oil to disguise its origins. Elisabeth Braw, an expert at the Atlantic Council, suggests this activity is intended to be provocative.
This 'shadow fleet' reportedly includes spy ships, raising national and regional security concerns. Expert Julian Pawlak warns of potential defense-related risks, as these tankers could be used to transport contraband, weapons, or espionage materials. Sweden's entry into NATO amplifies the strategic importance of Gotland, yet the island remains undermanned with only a small regiment stationed there. The Swedish government, acknowledging the defensive gaps, is open to increasing its military presence on Gotland post-NATO accession.
- Estonia, another Baltic state, shares Sweden's concerns about Russian aggression. Situated along a 300 km border with Russia, Estonia remains on high alert due to ongoing tensions. Recent discoveries, such as the movement of boundary buoys on the Narva River, deemed an 'unacceptable provocation' by the French Foreign Minister, have heightened fears of an invasion.
- In response, the Estonian Defense League conducts rigorous military exercises, preparing for any eventuality. The country’s steadfast support for Ukraine and its firm political stance against Russia, epitomized by Prime Minister Kaja Kallas's speeches, reflect its readiness to confront potential threats.
