South Africa Faces Political Turmoil After ANC Loses Majority
South Africa is at a critical juncture after the African National Congress (ANC) lost its longstanding majority in the recent parliamentary elections. The ANC, which has governed South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994, saw its support drastically fall to just 40.21%, a marked decline from 57.5% in the 2019 elections.
The results indicate that the ANC will now need to form a coalition government, marking the first time in the nation's democratic history that the party will not rule alone. The Democratic Alliance (DA), the largest opposition party, garnered 21.80% of the votes, while the newly-formed party by former President Jacob Zuma, MK, received 14.60%. The far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by Julius Malema captured 9.48% of the vote.
Reasons Behind the ANC's Decline
Several factors have contributed to the ANC's dramatic loss of power. South Africa is grappling with a stagnant economy, high unemployment rates, and deteriorating public services. Unemployment affects nearly a third of the working-age population, particularly young people, and the poverty rate is rising. In addition, corruption scandals involving senior party leaders have eroded public trust in the ANC.
The frequent power and water outages further exacerbate the public's frustration. Despite promises of universal access to education, housing, and basic services, these remain out of reach for many South Africans. The ANC's failure to address these issues effectively has significantly diminished its support base.
Potential Coalitions and Future Uncertainties
The big question now is who will the ANC partner with to form a coalition government. Among the possible partners are the economically liberal Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). A coalition with the DA could improve foreign relations and attract investment due to the DA's governance track record in the Western Cape province. However, an ANC-EFF coalition could deter investors due to the EFF's radical policies, such as large-scale expropriations and nationalizations without compensation.
Political analysts are divided on the potential stability of these coalitions. Previous local-level coalitions between the ANC and the EFF have proven unstable. Furthermore, the re-establishment of the MK party by Jacob Zuma poses an additional challenge for coalition-building.
On the international front, the ANC's loss of power is significant for South Africa's relationships with Western countries, as well as its ties with Russia and China. The nation's pro-Palestinian stance and legal actions against Israel at the International Court of Justice further complicate its diplomatic landscape.
The ANC's internal dynamics also add to the uncertainty. While Deputy General Secretary Momvula Mikonyane has assured that President Cyril Ramaphosa will not resign, it remains to be seen if he will be re-elected for a fifth term. Ramaphosa's tenure has been marred by internal party conflicts and a perceived inability to implement effective reforms.
- South Africa's current political scenario poses both opportunities and risks for foreign investors, particularly those from Germany. The country's status as Africa's economic powerhouse and its strategic position as a 'gateway to Africa' make it a crucial player on the continent.
