The Senate's majority support may lead to a more stable examination of the budget compared to the National Assembly's contentious debates.
The rejection of the budget in the National Assembly highlights the challenges faced by the government in securing legislative support amid a divided parliament.
The Senate may propose significant amendments to the budget, potentially restoring some of the original government's proposals that were removed in the National Assembly.
If the Senate and National Assembly cannot reach an agreement, Prime Minister Barnier may face increased pressure to utilize Article 49.3, risking political instability.
The Senate is set to examine the 2025 State and Social Security budgets after the National Assembly's rejection of the initial finance bill. This marks a significant moment in the legislative process, as the Senate, with its majority support, aims to amend and refine the budget proposals. The Senate's examination will begin on Wednesday, leading into a budget marathon that will last until mid-December. The general budget rapporteur, Jean-François Husson, has indicated that there could be several billion euros in additional savings proposed, as the government seeks to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP by 2025. The Senate's approach is expected to be more collaborative compared to the contentious debates in the National Assembly, where the budget faced significant opposition and amendments from various political blocs.
The National Assembly's rejection of the budget is unprecedented in the Fifth Republic's history, with a vote of 362 against and only 192 in favor. This outcome reflects the fragmented political landscape, with the left successfully pushing for new taxes on superprofits and large corporations, while the government’s original proposals faced significant alterations. The budget will now be sent to the Senate, where it will undergo further scrutiny and potential amendments before returning to the National Assembly for final approval. Prime Minister Michel Barnier may need to invoke Article 49.3 to expedite the process, putting his government at risk of a censure motion.
