On Tuesday, August 13, the Russian currency experienced a significant decline against major foreign currencies, including the Chinese yuan, U.S. dollar, and euro. This drop was marked by a 1.9% increase in the yuan's value, reaching 12.11 rubles, while futures for the dollar and euro rose by 1.4%, hitting 89.89 and 97.72 rubles, respectively. These levels had not been seen since June, indicating a concerning trend for the Russian economy.
In the over-the-counter market, the situation worsened as the dollar surged to 93.85 rubles, a peak not reached since May. Similarly, the yuan and euro values climbed to 13.08 and 102.41 rubles, respectively, marking the highest values since February. This escalation is largely attributed to U.S. sanctions imposed on the Moscow Exchange, which have hindered transactions involving the dollar and euro on traditional trading platforms. Consequently, transactions have shifted to the over-the-counter market, where banks and companies utilize various electronic platforms for trading.
The Central Bank of Russia responded to these fluctuations by adjusting the official exchange rates for August 14, increasing the yuan rate from 11.86 to 12.02 rubles, the dollar from 89.95 to 92.66 rubles, and the euro from 96.69 to 100.56 rubles. This adjustment reflects an imbalance between the demand for foreign currency and its supply in Russia, as noted by financial experts. The decrease in currency inflow from exports and rising demand for imports have exacerbated this imbalance, leading to increased prices for foreign currencies.
Analysts also pointed to seasonal factors and geopolitical tensions as contributors to heightened currency demand among the public. The shortage of yuan, dollars, and euros has become particularly acute in the over-the-counter market, resulting in significant price differences compared to the stock exchange. Experts suggest that while discrepancies between exchange and over-the-counter rates are typically temporary, the current sanctions against the Moscow Exchange may prolong this situation.
Despite these challenges, financial analysts maintain that the Russian economy has shown resilience in the past and can navigate through these new difficulties. They emphasize that the current conditions do not indicate the emergence of multiple exchange rates, which would pose a more significant risk. Instead, they suggest that the Central Bank may need to adjust its approach to calculating official exchange rates to stabilize the situation.
