Overview of Russia's Nuclear Doctrine
Russia's nuclear doctrine, officially known as the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence, outlines the country's approach to nuclear deterrence and the circumstances under which it might deploy its nuclear arsenal. Initially part of the broader Russian Military Doctrine established in 2000, it became a standalone document in 2020. The doctrine has undergone significant amendments, particularly in 2024, reflecting Russia's evolving security concerns and geopolitical landscape.
Key Amendments and Historical Context
The most recent amendment, announced on November 19, 2024, allows for a broader interpretation of when Russia might use nuclear weapons. This change was influenced by the U.S. decision to provide Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles, which Russia perceives as a direct threat. The updated doctrine states that any aggression against Russia or its allies, even from a non-nuclear state, could trigger a nuclear response if supported by a nuclear power. Historically, the doctrine has emphasized deterrence against both nuclear and conventional threats, with previous versions outlining conditions for nuclear use in response to weapons of mass destruction or significant conventional attacks.
Implications for Global Security
The implications of Russia's updated nuclear doctrine are profound, potentially escalating tensions in an already volatile geopolitical environment. The doctrine's provisions suggest that any large-scale military actions near Russia's borders or the deployment of missile defense systems could be interpreted as justifications for a nuclear response. This shift raises concerns about the stability of nuclear deterrence and the risk of miscalculations that could lead to catastrophic consequences.
