Russia's Provocative Tactics in the Baltic Sea Region
Moscow has been increasingly using targeted provocation to unsettle the states bordering the Baltic Sea. Incidents of GPS interference, risky flight maneuvers at NATO borders, and verbal threats have been on the rise for months. Recently, Finnair resumed flights to Estonia's second-largest city, Tartu, after weeks of interruption due to digital sabotage of the GPS flight control system, presumably from the St. Petersburg region. This is part of a larger pattern dubbed the 'Baltic Jammer,' which has been reported over the Baltic Sea.
According to Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Russia is waging a 'shadow war' against the West. Moscow's objectives include creating a constant atmosphere of alarm via numerous provocations. These range from removing navigation buoys along the Narva border river to sending fighter jets with switched-off transponder signals into NATO airspace hundreds of times a year.
Response from Baltic Sea States
Neighboring states like Finland and Sweden have remained largely composed in the face of these provocations. They have been warning of potential environmental damage and espionage due to Russian 'shadow tankers' and have attributed recent underwater pipeline damages to Russian sabotage. In contrast, Moscow's provocative plan to move the Baltic Sea borders near the Kaliningrad exclave was immediately dismissed by Sweden, Finland, and other neighboring countries.
The Larger Strategy Behind the Provocations
Security experts suggest that these provocations are part of a broader strategy by Putin to destabilize NATO without engaging in a conventional war. Minna Ålander from the Finnish Institute for International Affairs indicates that Russia may aim to undermine NATO's collective defense guarantee by creating crises and issuing nuclear ultimatums. However, NATO's recent expansion with Finland and Sweden has fortified the alliance’s eastern flank, countering Moscow's strategies.
- In addition to tensions in the Baltic Sea region, Russia's military has been active in eastern Ukraine. On Sunday, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the capture of Umanské in Donetsk, a small town critical to their offensive operations. According to newly appointed Defense Minister Andreï Beloussov, Russian troops have made significant territorial gains in Ukraine since January 2024.
- Despite facing ammunition shortages and manpower issues, the Ukrainian army remains hopeful. With the anticipated delivery of Western munitions, Kyiv aims to regain its footing on the front lines. Notably, the United States recently authorized Ukraine to target Russian soil under specific conditions to defend Kharkiv, suggesting a broader international support for Ukraine’s resistance.
