In July 2023, retail sales showed signs of recovery, returning to positive territory after a decline in June. According to Istat estimates, retail sales increased by 0.5% in value and 0.3% in volume, with a year-on-year trend showing a 1.0% increase in value and 0.1% in volume. Both food and non-food sales experienced growth, with food sales increasing by 0.5% in value and 0.4% in volume compared to June, and non-food sales rising by 0.6% in value and 0.2% in volume. However, when compared to July 2023, food sales grew by 0.3% in value but fell by 0.7% in volume, while non-food sales saw increases in both value and volume, with growth rates of 1.4% and 0.6% respectively.
In August, economists participating in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) estimated a monthly inflation rate of 3.9%, slightly below July's 4% recorded by INDEC. Projections for September indicated a decrease to 3.5% inflation, suggesting a notable decline in annual inflation expectations, previously at 122.9%. Analysts also forecasted a 3.8% reduction in real GDP for 2024, indicating a continuation of economic challenges. The open unemployment rate remained steady at 8.0%, with expectations of a slight rise to 8.1% by the end of 2024.
In terms of the financial landscape, the BADLAR rate for private banks was projected at 38.5% for August, with a slight increase expected by December. The median exchange rate for the dollar was anticipated to reach $961.9 by September 2024, reflecting a consistent increase. Furthermore, the foreign trade outlook projected a trade surplus of $7.829 billion for 2024, with exports expected to total $77.857 million and imports at $59.163 million. Finally, a primary fiscal surplus was anticipated, with no participants expecting a primary deficit for the upcoming year.
- The retail sales data indicates a positive shift in consumer spending, which could be a response to improved economic conditions or seasonal factors. The increase in non-food sales suggests that consumers are regaining confidence in the market, possibly driven by seasonal promotions or new product launches.
- The inflation forecasts highlight the ongoing economic challenges faced by the country, with high inflation rates affecting purchasing power and overall economic stability. The predictions of a decrease in GDP and the steady unemployment rate reflect the need for strategic economic policies to stimulate growth and reduce unemployment in the coming years.
- The projections for the financial sector, including the BADLAR rate and exchange rate expectations, reveal the complexities of managing inflation and currency stability. The anticipated trade surplus signals a potential improvement in the balance of trade, which could provide a buffer against inflationary pressures.
