The ongoing war in Ukraine is creating significant challenges for Russia, both on the battlefield and economically. Vladimir Putin's strategy appears to be faltering as the conflict has turned into a protracted battle of resources. Military economist Marcus Keupp highlights that Russia's dwindling resources and inability to boost production capacity are major hurdles. The Russian arms industry struggles with a shortage of skilled workers and sanctions that limit the country's ability to produce modern combat equipment.
Sanctions have severely impacted Russia's economy, reducing Putin's financial resources and further hampering his war efforts. Despite attempts to mass-produce simple weapons, the quality and quantity of modern military equipment remain insufficient. Experts predict that Russia's supplies could be depleted by the end of 2025 to mid-2027, raising questions about the sustainability of Putin's war economy.
In a related development, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made his first visit to Ukraine since the invasion began. Orbán, known for his pro-Russian stance within the European Union, met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a gesture that contrasts with his previous actions. Hungary has often blocked or diluted EU efforts to support Ukraine and sanction Russia, causing tensions within the bloc.
Orbán's visit comes as Hungary assumes the semiannual rotating presidency of the European Union. While this position holds limited power, it allows Hungary to influence the EU's agenda. Orbán's track record of undermining democratic institutions and his recent efforts to form a new nationalist alliance within the European Parliament add complexity to his role. The visit aims to foster peace, but its impact remains uncertain given the strained relations and Orbán's controversial stance.
- The economic strain on Russia is exacerbated by the high costs of maintaining the war effort. The Kremlin's defense budget for 2024 is set at around 100 billion euros, with additional billions allocated for national security. This substantial expenditure, amounting to a significant portion of Russia's GDP, raises concerns about the long-term viability of Putin's war economy.
- Orbán's visit to Ukraine, while symbolic, highlights the broader geopolitical dynamics at play. His meeting with Zelensky, marked by a photo of the two leaders alone at a small table, underscores the delicate and often contentious relationship between Hungary and Ukraine. The visit also reflects Orbán's attempt to balance his pro-Russian stance with the responsibilities of the EU presidency.
- The formation of the 'Patriots for Europe' alliance, spearheaded by Orbán, signals a push for greater influence within the European Parliament. This new right-wing group aims to recruit members from other EU countries, despite ideological differences over the Ukraine war and cooperation with Russia. Orbán's efforts to consolidate nationalist forces could reshape the political landscape in Europe, adding another layer of complexity to the ongoing conflict.
