The Impact of Resource Scarcity on Russia's War Effort
Scarcity of resources, an overheated economy, and high losses are becoming increasingly noticeable for Vladimir Putin as the war in Ukraine drags on. The conflict has turned into a battle of materials, with Ukrainian forces destroying numerous Russian weapons on the battlefield. According to military economist Marcus Keupp, Russia's inability to keep up with the production of supplies is a significant disadvantage. He predicts that Russian supplies could be exhausted between the end of 2025 and the middle of 2027.
Russia's arms industry is struggling to produce modern combat equipment, relying instead on mass production of simpler tools such as rifles and grenades. This approach, combined with a shortage of skilled workers and the impact of international sanctions, has severely limited Russia's ability to sustain its war effort. The sanctions have also reduced Russia's income, tightening the war chest and making it difficult for Putin to produce weapons quickly and continuously.
Putin's Response and International Dynamics
In response to these challenges, Putin has expressed interest in the statements made by Republican candidate Donald Trump, who has repeatedly declared that he would quickly stop the war in Ukraine if re-elected as President of the United States. Putin confirmed that Russia takes Trump's statements seriously and is awaiting the results of the US presidential elections before resuming any dialogue on strategic stability. However, Putin remains opposed to any ceasefire in Ukraine unless Kiev makes permanent concessions to Russia.
On the ground, Russia has continued its military operations, recently targeting Ukrainian air bases with missile strikes. These attacks have resulted in the destruction of several Ukrainian aircraft and a helicopter. Despite these efforts, the conflict has led to significant civilian casualties, with local authorities reporting deaths and injuries from Russian attacks on northeastern and southern Ukraine. The ongoing conflict has resulted in thousands of deaths and injuries, with both sides suffering heavy losses.
- The Kremlin's defense budget for 2024 is set at around 100 billion euros, with an additional 34 billion euros allocated for national security and security agencies. This amounts to 38.6 percent of all expenditure in the Russian budget or eight percent of gross domestic product. However, experts warn that the war-related economic boom could lead to a short-term upturn before collapsing, putting further pressure on Russia's already strained economy.
- Putin's conditions for negotiating with Ukraine include the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from four regions claimed by Moscow and the abandonment of Ukraine's attempt to join NATO. These conditions have been immediately rejected by Ukraine, NATO, and the United States, making a peaceful resolution to the conflict unlikely in the near future.
