Putin's decree reflects a strategic shift in Russia's military posture, indicating a readiness to escalate the conflict further if provoked by Western support for Ukraine.
The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles represents a significant change in the dynamics of the conflict, potentially heightening tensions between NATO and Russia.
The involvement of North Korean troops alongside Russian forces in the conflict could complicate international responses and escalate the situation further.
The updated nuclear doctrine may lead to increased military tensions in Eastern Europe, as both sides may feel more emboldened to act aggressively.
Potential for further escalation in the Ukraine conflict, with both sides possibly increasing military support and operations in response to each other's actions.
International diplomatic efforts may intensify as countries seek to mitigate the risks of nuclear engagement and find a resolution to the ongoing conflict.
On November 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree updating Russia's nuclear doctrine, coinciding with the 1,000th day of the ongoing war in Ukraine. This decree expands the conditions under which Russia may use nuclear weapons, particularly in response to conventional attacks, especially those supported by nuclear powers like the United States. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that the changes were necessary to adapt to current threats perceived from the West.
The updated nuclear doctrine states that any massive airstrike against Russia, including those from non-nuclear states like Ukraine but supported by nuclear states, could be interpreted as a joint attack, potentially justifying a nuclear response. This marks a significant broadening of the criteria for nuclear engagement compared to previous versions of the doctrine.
The backdrop to this decree includes the recent U.S. decision to authorize Ukraine to strike targets within Russia using long-range missiles, a move that has been interpreted by Moscow as an escalation of the conflict. Reports suggest that the U.S. green light may be limited to specific regions, such as Kursk, where Ukrainian forces have been active.
As the war continues, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned Russia's recent attacks, which resulted in civilian casualties, and reiterated Ukraine's commitment to resist Russian aggression. He called for international support to counter these attacks and emphasized that Ukraine would not submit to occupation.
