The proposed framework could reshape the dynamics of cooperation among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, moving towards a more collaborative approach in managing shared water resources.
The emphasis on scientific transparency and the integration of climate forecasts into operational policies could pave the way for sustainable water management in the face of climate change.
If the proposed framework is adopted, it may lead to a reduction in tensions between the involved countries and foster a collaborative environment for managing the Nile's resources.
The success of this scientific approach could serve as a model for resolving similar disputes over shared water resources globally.
In a significant development aimed at resolving the escalating dispute over the Nile River waters, a team of researchers led by Essam Heggy has proposed a new scientific framework for managing large dams during prolonged droughts. This study, published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment on December 9, 2024, offers a practical model for sharing Nile water that ensures sustainable energy generation while addressing the water deficit faced by downstream countries, particularly Egypt and Sudan.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been at the center of a complex dispute involving Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan. Egypt relies heavily on the Nile for its water resources, with 98% of its renewable water supply coming from the river. In contrast, Ethiopia aims to utilize the GERD for hydroelectric power generation, which is crucial for providing electricity to about 60% of its population. The study emphasizes the need to redefine the concept of 'prolonged drought,' which has been a point of contention in negotiations between the three nations.
Heggy's research proposes a new definition of prolonged drought based on the water level of the Aswan High Dam, suggesting that a drought condition exists when the dam's water level falls below 165 meters. This approach integrates the flow from both the Blue Nile and the White Nile, providing a comprehensive view of the hydrological state of the Nile Basin.
The study outlines seven operational models for managing dam operations during droughts, evaluated against over a century of historical data. The findings indicate that certain policies could allow the GERD to generate up to 87% of its power without significantly impacting the water level behind the Aswan High Dam, presenting a potential win-win scenario for both Egypt and Ethiopia.
As climate change exacerbates challenges related to Nile water flows, the study advocates for flexible operational policies based on real-time climate forecasts. Heggy highlights the importance of transparency and cooperation among the Nile Basin countries to establish a unified understanding of prolonged drought and to share hydrological data.
