Netanyahu's New Game: Will It Succeed?
As the anniversary of the October 7 events approaches, a significant question arises regarding the aftermath of the 'Flood of Al-Aqsa.' Has the strategic landscape in the Middle East shifted in favor of Israel or Hamas? Did Tel Aviv achieve its objectives? The answers remain elusive due to the ambiguity surrounding Israel's goals and Hamas's motivations for its provocative actions against the Israeli military.
Hamas claims that the 'Flood of Al-Aqsa' was a preemptive response to Israeli strategies aimed at undermining resistance structures and military capabilities. In contrast, Israel asserts that it seeks to establish a reality where incidents like the 'Flood of Al-Aqsa' do not recur. Amid these narratives, numerous sub-discourses emerge, delving into Hamas's strategies and long-term objectives.
On the other hand, Netanyahu's recent statements at the United Nations General Assembly highlighted a desire to reshape the Middle East, emphasizing Israel's central role in this process. If Hamas's intent was to reinvigorate the Palestinian cause on the global stage and galvanize international support for Palestinian rights, it has achieved this to varying degrees. However, this has come at a staggering humanitarian cost, with over 65% of Gaza's infrastructure destroyed. The international humanitarian outcry has had a minimal impact on U.S. and European political decisions, indicating that Washington has adeptly navigated the diplomatic landscape to delay Iranian retaliation while granting Israel more time.
The Complex Dynamics of Resistance and Israeli Strategy
Hamas's actions have potentially forced Iran and its regional allies into a deeper confrontation, especially considering past criticisms of Tehran's inconsistency in supporting Palestinian causes. If the goal was to shift Iran's strategy from leveraging the Palestinian issue for negotiation purposes to a more aggressive posture, it appears to have succeeded. Recent developments indicate that Iran has abandoned its previous strategic patience and is now prepared to engage more forcefully.
Hamas likely anticipated a severe Israeli response, one that would target civilians and critical infrastructure, including hospitals and media outlets. The uncertainty lies in how regional actors and Arab public opinion would react, particularly from countries that have normalized relations with Israel.
The evaluation of Hamas's strategy suggests that the 'Flood of Al-Aqsa' was a preemptive move to disrupt Israeli plans to alter the balance of power in the region, including the rules of engagement. Conversely, Israel's strategy seems muddled, as U.S. officials have noted a lack of clarity regarding the post-Gaza landscape, raising questions about Israel's long-term objectives.
Military Engagements and Future Prospects
Militarily, Israel has not achieved its stated goals; it has neither dismantled Hamas nor ensured the safe return of hostages. Instead, it finds itself engaged on multiple fronts, having mobilized significant military resources in southern Lebanon while maintaining operations in Gaza. This situation has escalated to the point where Israel faces threats from various fronts, including Palestinian, Lebanese, Yemeni, Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian actors.
Israel's recent military actions in Lebanon have resulted in tactical victories against Hezbollah but have not yielded significant strategic advantages. The anniversary of October 7 saw a notable shift in resistance strategies, with increased operations targeting Israeli cities, indicating a growing challenge to Israeli security. The rhetoric from both Palestinian and Lebanese factions suggests a rejection of negotiations under current conditions, insisting that a ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza are prerequisites for any discussions.
In the face of these developments, Israel appears to be pivoting from a doctrine of rapid warfare to a prolonged conflict aimed at neutralizing perceived security threats. Netanyahu's vision of a Middle East without Palestine seems increasingly unattainable, as resistance factions continue to adapt and respond to Israeli military strategies. The next few weeks will be critical, particularly with potential shifts in U.S. political dynamics that could influence the trajectory of the conflict.
