Daily Reports
National Rally's Surge in Brittany and Overseas Territories
The National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, has made significant inroads in Brittany, a region historically dominated by socialist and Macronist forces. The RN's rise is evident as they have managed to qualify for the second round in all constituencies except one. This marks a historic breakthrough for the party, which had never before managed to place a candidate in the second round of a legislative election in Brittany.
In formerly socialist strongholds, RN candidates led in five constituencies, including one in Finistère, Côtes d'Armor, Ille-et-Vilaine, and two in Morbihan. The party's support has surged by at least 14 points across the region, placing it in third position with 27.76%, just behind the New Popular Front (29.46%) and Together! (29.76%). Even the outgoing regionalist deputy, Paul Molac, will face a tough contest against RN candidate Katel Le Cuillier in Morbihan.
Challenges for Macronist and Left Forces
Despite the RN's gains, the party has not yet managed to overtake the presidential camp and the united left. The second round, scheduled for July 7, is expected to be complicated by numerous triangular contests. The left-wing and centrist blocs may withdraw their candidates to prevent the RN from winning.
The presidential camp, although in a precarious position nationally, has managed to limit its losses in Brittany. In 2017, Macron's party won 24 out of 27 constituencies, but this time, only ten Renaissance candidates secured first place in their constituencies. The united left has benefited from the decline of Macronist support, gaining strength in four new constituencies, including two in Finistère.
RN's Performance in Overseas Territories
In the overseas territories, the RN has also made some headway but faces significant challenges. In Guadeloupe, RN candidates Laurent Petit and Rody Tolassy qualified for the second round but are far behind the leading candidates from the New Christian Popular Front. In Guyana, the New Popular Front's candidates, Jean-Victor Castor and Davy Rimane, are well ahead, though they did not secure enough votes to win in the first round.
In New Caledonia, loyalist and independence candidates are set to face off in the second round. In Polynesia, Moerani Frébault, a center-right autonomist candidate, won in the first round. Meanwhile, in Martinique, an RN candidate will contest the second round for the first time, though his chances of winning are slim.
Overall, the RN's performance in both Brittany and the overseas territories indicates a shifting political landscape in France.
- In Brittany, the RN's rise is particularly noticeable in rural areas, far from the coasts and major cities. This shift suggests a growing discontent with traditional political parties and a desire for change among the electorate.
- The left-wing and centrist blocs' strategy to withdraw candidates in triangular contests aims to consolidate votes against the RN, highlighting the complexities of the French electoral system.
- In the overseas territories, the RN's performance varies significantly. In Guadeloupe and Guyana, the party has made inroads but faces strong competition from established local candidates. In New Caledonia, the political landscape is shaped by the ongoing independence debate, affecting voter preferences.
- The RN's ability to qualify candidates for the second round in multiple regions demonstrates its growing influence, but the party still faces significant hurdles in converting this support into electoral victories.
