French Early Legislative Elections: National Rally's Surge and Shattered Alliances
In a surprising twist, the National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, is aiming for a "government of national unity" in the upcoming French legislative elections slated for June 30 and July 7. This aspiration highlights the seismic shifts in the French political landscape, as traditional party lines blur and alliances form across the political spectrum.
Le Pen's RN, which has shown remarkable resilience and growth in recent polls, is consolidating its power with the help of former conservative Republicans. RN spokesperson Laurent Jacobelli emphasized the desire to include experienced conservatives in their envisioned government. Among the notable conservatives aligning with RN is Eric Ciotti, former president of the Republicans, who along with 80 other candidates, now backs the RN.
The political atmosphere is frenetic as the candidates finalize their nominations. Jordan Bardella, the RN's new head and Le Pen's heir, labeled the cooperation with Ciotti as a "historic" moment. This agreement cements RN's dominance in around 70 constituencies, indicating a strong possibility of their parliamentary majority.
Ciotti's alignment with the RN has met significant resistance within the Republican Party itself. Many Republicans view his move as a betrayal, leading to public calls for his resignation. Ciotti, however, is steadfast, seeking judicial redress to challenge his expulsion from the party.
President Macron's centrist Renaissance party faces growing criticism and frustration due to recent electoral defeats and his controversial decision to dissolve the National Assembly. Macron's former prime minister, Edouard Philippe, has distanced himself, aligning with his party, Horizonte, to counter the populist wave.
The disintegration of the traditional conservative party and the rise of populism have bolstered the RN's prospects. Current polls suggest RN could secure between 220 to 270 seats in the National Assembly, nearing the 289 needed for an absolute majority. Such an outcome would compel Macron to cohabitate with an RN-led government, leading to potential legislative gridlock and political chaos.
The left-wing Popular Front, despite organizing a coalition of socialists, greens, and communists, struggles without a clear leader, as Jean-Luc Mélenchon fails to gain universal support. This further complicates Macron's position, as he seeks to thwart both extreme right and left influences.
Marine Le Pen's campaign rhetoric focuses on opposing what she deems the "radical and violent extreme left," aiming to resonate with voters across the political spectrum. Her strategy involves presenting a broad platform that appeals to right, left, and independent voters alike.
- Eric Ciotti's strategic alliance with the RN underscores his belief that without this partnership, the Republicans would remain too weak to counter Macron effectively. His comments highlight the ideological alignments that make this cooperation feasible despite historical opposition.
- Political analysts note that the union between RN and Republicans may dismantle the long-standing "cordon sanitaire" that prevented alliances with far-right factions. This shift marks a significant departure from traditional French political norms.
- Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and other government officials are vehemently opposed to an RN majority, stressing the importance of preventing Marine Le Pen's rise to power. Attal's efforts reflect the broader Republican and centrist sentiment against the populist surge.
