Major Transformations in the Middle East: A Call for Caution
The Middle East is undergoing significant changes following the Al-Aqsa flood, with implications that could reshape the geopolitical landscape. Emile Hakayem, a prominent researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, warns that the West must not underestimate these transformations. In his article for the Financial Times, he highlights the combination of tragic and strategic events since October 7, 2023, which are likely to have long-lasting repercussions.
Hakayem emphasizes that the Arab East is characterized by diverse and fragile societies, which are unlikely to receive substantial external assistance due to a lack of enthusiasm from both regional and global powers. The ongoing violence, particularly in Gaza, underscores the urgent need for a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with the two-state solution emerging as the most viable path forward. He argues that Palestinians must engage in meaningful reforms within their authority to truly embrace this diplomatic approach.
Israel's Military Strategy and Regional Dynamics
The article further discusses Israel's transition from shock to military victory within a year, which has fostered a belief in the necessity of military strength to justify expansion into Gaza, the West Bank, and southern Syria. Hakayem critiques the unconditional support Israel receives from the U.S. and European nations, suggesting that this mindset could lead to dire consequences, including increased dependence on the U.S. and alienation of potential regional partners.
He also notes the significant reputational loss Israel faces due to its actions in Gaza, contrasting this with the situation in Lebanon, where Hezbollah's credibility is waning. Meanwhile, the Syrian populace is experiencing newfound freedom, which has contributed to the rapid decline of Bashar al-Assad's regime, attributed to its corruption. Hakayem calls for a commitment to establishing inclusive governance in Syria, while also advocating for moderation from Türkiye and diplomatic efforts from the U.S. to foster reconciliation among Arabs and Kurds.
In conclusion, Hakayem posits that while the historic shifts in the region have been contained thus far, the West must remain vigilant and proactive in addressing the complexities of the Middle East's evolving landscape.
