Mexico's Dilemma in the US Elections: Trump vs. Harris
As the United States prepares for its presidential elections on November 5, Mexico finds itself in a precarious position, closely monitoring the tight race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris. The outcome of this election is expected to have significant implications for the bilateral relationship between the two neighboring countries, which share a border of over 3,000 kilometers.
Experts warn that regardless of who wins, US policy towards Mexico is likely to become more stringent. Jorge Schiavon, a political analyst, highlights that both candidates have shown tendencies that could lead to a hardening of policies affecting immigration, trade, and drug trafficking. The so-called 'Trump Risk Index' by The Economist ranks Mexico as the most vulnerable country should Trump regain the presidency, given his previous inflammatory rhetoric and policies aimed at curbing immigration.
The current Mexican administration, led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, faces challenges including rising violence linked to drug cartels and tensions with the US over judicial reforms. The recent capture of drug lord Ismael El Mayo Zambada has further strained relations, as the US conducted the operation without prior consultation with Mexican authorities. Despite claims of a strong bilateral relationship, underlying distrust persists between the two nations, exacerbated by unilateral actions taken by the US.
In contrast, Kamala Harris's approach is perceived as more predictable, though her past actions as Vice President during the migration crisis raise concerns among some Mexican officials. The potential for a Harris presidency offers a glimmer of hope for improved relations, especially given her emphasis on addressing the root causes of migration. However, her stance on border control and trade negotiations could still mirror some of Trump's more protectionist policies.
Polls and Global Perspectives on the US Election
As the election date approaches, polling data indicates a close race, particularly in swing states crucial for determining the electoral outcome. While Harris leads in some surveys, the margins are razor-thin, reflecting a deeply divided electorate. For instance, in Michigan, a key swing state, Harris is reported to have a lead of over five percentage points, according to a recent poll. However, other polls show Trump maintaining a slight edge in various states, making the race highly competitive.
Internationally, there is a notable preference for Harris among European voters, with significant majorities expressing support for her candidacy over Trump. This sentiment is particularly strong in countries like Denmark and Germany, where Harris is favored by left-leaning and even some center-right voters. In contrast, Trump retains support among far-right voters in certain regions, showcasing the complex political landscape both in the US and abroad.
As both candidates make their final appeals to voters, the stakes are high not only for America but also for its allies, particularly Mexico, which is anxiously awaiting the election results that could reshape its relationship with the United States. With early voting already in progress and millions of ballots cast, the world watches closely as the United States heads towards what could be one of its most consequential elections in recent history.
