The future of President Emmanuel Macron and the French political landscape is under intense scrutiny following a seismic shift in the European elections. The right-wing populists, Rassemblement National (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, emerged victorious with 31.37 percent of the vote, significantly outpacing Macron’s Renaissance alliance. In a surprising move, Macron invoked Article 12 of the French constitution, dissolving the National Assembly and calling for new elections on June 30th and July 7th.
Macron, who has been President since May 2017 and re-elected in April 2022, faces a challenging political environment. Despite his presidential powers, Macron will need to navigate a potentially more fragmented parliament. Current polls suggest an absolute majority for the RN is unlikely, but their strengthened position means Macron will have to contend with more right-wing influence.
The appointment of a new Prime Minister could become a significant point of contention. While Macron has the constitutional authority to appoint the Prime Minister, the parliament can withdraw its confidence. If the RN secures a majority, Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old leader of the RN, could be nominated as Prime Minister. Bardella has stated he would only govern with an absolute majority, which could lead to the fourth 'cohabitation' in French history.
Cohabitation, a scenario where the president and prime minister come from different political camps, would require Macron and Bardella to make significant compromises. This arrangement would shift more domestic policy power to the Prime Minister, while Macron would focus primarily on foreign policy and defense.
The outcome of the elections remains uncertain, especially if no party achieves an absolute majority. Macron could attempt to form an 'anti-RN' alliance or face a vote of no confidence. The left-wing New Popular Front, an alliance of five parties, could also play a crucial role in preventing an RN majority.
Regardless of the election results, Macron has made it clear he will not resign and intends to complete his term until 2027. The upcoming elections are historic and will significantly impact the French political landscape, leaving many questions to be answered post-election.
- The composition of the National Assembly is set for a profound change. The first round of legislative elections has placed the RN and its Republican allies in the lead. The second round on July 7th will determine the final composition, with projections suggesting the RN and allies could secure between 230 and 280 seats, just shy of the 289 needed for an absolute majority.
- Polling institutes, such as Ipsos, project the New Popular Front could secure between 125 and 165 seats, while the outgoing presidential majority might only obtain between 70 and 100 seats. The Republicans are projected to follow with between 41 and 61 seats. These projections, however, are subject to change as the second round campaign evolves and candidates potentially withdraw or shift their support.
