Seats are open in the four nations of the United Kingdom—England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland—for the elections to renew the 650 seats of the House of Commons. This is the only elective branch of the Westminster Parliament, and elections follow the traditional voting system divided into single-member majority constituencies, where only the first passes ('first past the post'). Around 50 million eligible Britons are called to the polls, out of a population of almost 68 million.
Forecasts unanimously indicate a significant victory for the Labor opposition, marking a return to government after 14 years, under the moderate leadership of Sir Keir Starmer, a 61-year-old former crown prosecutor. Conversely, a historic collapse is expected for the conservatives under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has been in power since 2010. This collapse is set against the backdrop of crises, scandals, and the repercussions of Brexit, as well as a revolving door of leaders. The Tories risk being outpaced by Nigel Farage's populist Reform UK on the right and by Ed Davey's centrist Liberal Democrats in terms of seats.
Prime Minister Sunak was one of the first to vote this morning, accompanied by his wife Akshata Murty, in Richmond, Yorkshire. He quickly posted an appeal on social media, echoing his final stages of the electoral campaign. Former Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson also addressed voters, urging them not to hand over the country to what he described as 'the most left-wing government since the Second World War,' warning of increased taxes and illegal immigration.
The feeling of a historical debacle among British conservatives has led to internal reproaches and accusations even before the polls. Many MPs have anonymously described the last six weeks as 'the worst campaign' of their lives, blaming Sunak for not heeding his advisors. Australian election guru Isaac Levido, who helped Boris Johnson to victory in 2019, advised against early elections and suggested focusing attacks on Nigel Farage's Reform UK. The Conservatives' delayed attacks on Farage's racism, xenophobia, and homophobia have come too late, with Reform UK polling at 16%, potentially eroding Tory seats.
Sunak's campaign has been marked by contradictions and desperation. He has oscillated between praising his rival, Keir Starmer, for his family values and criticizing him as 'Sir Sleepy' for maintaining a reasonable work schedule. The Conservative slogan has linked Starmer's habits to national security concerns. Despite this, Sunak's main plea has been to prevent a Labor 'supermajority' that could lead to an unchecked government and a weakened opposition.
Keir Starmer, on the other hand, has been urging voters to ensure change by voting and not staying at home. He aims to counter Conservative fear-mongering about a powerful Labor government. Starmer has emphasized that a larger majority would be beneficial for the country, allowing for significant changes after 14 years of Conservative rule. His campaign has been well-received by major British newspapers, which see a change of cycle as welcome.
- Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has faced significant backlash from within his own party. Many Conservative MPs have anonymously criticized the campaign strategy and timing, arguing that better economic data could have been leveraged if elections were held later in the year.
- Sunak's campaign has also been criticized for its delayed attacks on Nigel Farage's Reform UK, which is polling at 16%. These attacks, focusing on Farage's controversial views, came too late to prevent potential erosion of Tory seats.
- Keir Starmer's campaign has focused on ensuring that voters turn out to vote for change. He has countered Conservative claims by emphasizing that a larger Labor majority would lead to effective governance and necessary reforms. His approach has been positively received by influential British newspapers.
