Analysis of Potential Israeli Ground Operation in Southern Lebanon
Military analysts are closely monitoring the situation regarding a possible ground operation by the Israeli occupation army in southern Lebanon. Recent reports from American media suggest that Israel is preparing for an imminent invasion, raising concerns among U.S. officials about the potential escalation of the conflict. British and French officials have urged restraint, advocating against a ground attack in Lebanon.
Retired military expert Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi indicates that the operation could commence within hours or days, contingent on various field conditions and strategic preparations. He anticipates a complex military maneuver involving multiple attack strategies, including a primary assault and supporting operations. Al-Duwairi envisions that the operation may start with frontline engagements and could involve landing operations deeper within Lebanese territory.
The central focus of the Israeli military effort is expected to be in the area between Bint Jbeil, Aita al-Shaab, and Houla. Al-Duwairi highlights the potential for a secondary attack from the sea, bolstered by a significant air campaign. He notes that the Israeli military doctrine emphasizes expanding successful operations, which could lead to further incursions towards the Litani River if initial objectives are met.
The presence of Hezbollah's medium and long-range missiles, with ranges exceeding 300 kilometers, poses a significant challenge for Israeli forces. Al-Duwairi stresses the importance of targeting missile storage and manufacturing sites, particularly in northern regions such as Baalbek and Hermel. Additionally, updating intelligence on Hezbollah’s defensive strategies is crucial for the success of the operation.
Brigadier General Elias Hanna underscores the strategic importance of specific areas, including Nasr, Aziz, and Badr, as key points of contact. He believes that the decisive battle will take place between the Nasr and Aziz regions, where Hezbollah has established a robust defense to protect its missile capabilities. Hanna warns that Israeli forces may become vulnerable if they penetrate too deeply into Lebanese territory, potentially enhancing Hezbollah's legitimacy as a resistance movement.
Drawing parallels to the 2006 war, Hanna notes the differences in military readiness and preparation, highlighting the challenges posed by the mountainous terrain of Lebanon compared to previous operations in the Gaza Strip. He emphasizes that the success of any Israeli operation will largely depend on Hezbollah’s preparedness and the evolving battlefield dynamics.
