Prolonged War in Gaza: Far-Reaching Implications
Israel has warned that the war in Gaza could drag on until the end of the year, as National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi predicted 'seven more months of fighting' to destroy Hamas, a goal that remains unfulfilled after over seven months of conflict. Prolonging the war could have catastrophic consequences for Palestinians in the already devastated territory and significant repercussions for Israel and other countries, according to experts.
The situation inside Gaza is deteriorating day by day with escalating fatalities and a worsening humanitarian crisis. Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health have predicted that the death toll in Gaza could exceed 86,000 by August if the war continues. Aid agencies report that Gaza's civilian population suffers from famine, and bringing humanitarian assistance has become increasingly difficult.
Experts suggest that both Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might see advantages in prolonging the war. For Hamas, it means continued resistance, while for Netanyahu, it is delaying domestic accountability and elections. Netanyahu faces intense pressure from hardline coalition members to continue the war until Hamas is eliminated.
Additionally, Israel's diplomatic isolation could increase if the war drags on. Some European countries and South American states have reduced their diplomatic relations, and there is a potential for legal actions at international courts. This protracted conflict impacts not only Israel's international relations but also its efforts to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states.
Israel's economy has suffered considerably since the war began. Economic output plunged right after the October 7 attacks, and although there was some recovery, credit rating agencies have downgraded Israel's ratings, citing increased defense spending. The war has been costly for Israel, with daily expenses running into millions and total costs estimated to be around $60 billion. This economic strain could become more severe if the conflict continues.
The war is also having repercussions on US politics, particularly affecting President Joe Biden's re-election prospects. Biden’s strong support for Israel has led to backlash among progressive, young, and Arab American voters, essential demographics in key swing states. Despite efforts to balance his administration’s stance, the war persists and the humanitarian crisis deepens, further complicating Biden’s political landscape.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address these issues in an exclusive interview on LCI this Thursday, May 30 at 8:30 p.m. Excerpts from this interview will also be available on TF1 and social media platforms. This announcement has sparked calls for demonstrations in front of the channel.
- Additionally, it is noted that the potential for legal actions such as a possible arrest warrant for Netanyahu from the International Criminal Court adds another layer of complexity to the ongoing conflict. There is also a genocide case pending at the International Court of Justice, adding further international scrutiny on Israel’s actions in Gaza.
