Israel's Strategy Against Hezbollah: Aiming for Political Settlement Rather than Military Victory
In recent statements, former Israeli intelligence officer Doron Matza shed light on Israel's current approach towards Hezbollah, indicating a strategic shift away from seeking a comprehensive military victory. Instead, Israel is focused on creating both internal and external pressure on Hezbollah to encourage a political settlement that would ideally see the group retreat beyond the Litani River and reduce its support for Gaza. Matza's insights, published in the Israeli newspaper Maariv, highlight that recent military operations, including targeted strikes in southern Beirut, are designed to generate confusion for Hezbollah rather than to signal an impending ground invasion.
Matza emphasized that if Israel intended to launch a significant ground attack, it would have capitalized on the chaos created by these operations. He noted that both political and military leaders in Israel, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Israel Katz, have communicated a preference for limited military actions aimed at sending a message to Hezbollah, rather than engaging in a decisive ground campaign. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have echoed this sentiment, focusing on the mission of allowing northern residents to return home, thereby maintaining operational flexibility.
The Dual Levers of Pressure: International and Local Dynamics
Matza further elaborated on Israel's strategy, which he describes as a
aiming to create a state of controlled chaos that would lead to a political settlement. He pointed out that Israel is relying on two key levers to pressure Hezbollah: the international community and internal Lebanese political dynamics. The United States, France, and other international players have vested interests in stabilizing Lebanon, and Israel hopes they will exert pressure on Hezbollah to facilitate a new political arrangement.
On the local front, Matza noted that Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah operates within a complex political landscape in Lebanon, where various factions fear escalation with Israel. However, he cautioned that it remains uncertain whether Nasrallah and the international community will respond favorably to Israel's strategy. He warned that while Israel aims for a political settlement, Hezbollah's tactic of attrition could lead to unintended consequences, potentially dragging Israel into a prolonged conflict.
As Matza concluded, Israel's success hinges on balancing military escalation with diplomatic pressure. The risks are significant; a miscalculation could result in a drawn-out war of attrition that might compel Israel into a full-scale military engagement under less advantageous conditions.
