Israel's Plan to Replace Hamas in Gaza Faces Numerous Challenges
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently announced a strategic move to undermine Hamas's authority in Gaza and establish an alternative governance structure. Despite the ongoing military operations aimed at dismantling Hamas, numerous analysts and former officials are skeptical about the feasibility of such a plan. Michael Milstein, a former Israeli military intelligence officer and current analyst at Tel Aviv University, emphasized that finding a local alternative to Hamas is virtually impossible given past failures and the current political climate in the Gaza Strip.
Gallant has reiterated that Israel will not accept Hamas's control over Gaza at the end of the war. He pointed out that the Israeli government is actively searching for an alternative to Hamas by working on the ground and taking other measures to dismantle the militant group's capabilities. However, Milstein warned that any local leaders who agree to cooperate with Israel would be deemed traitors by the Palestinian population, making the newly formed entities extremely fragile unless Israel maintains a permanent presence in Gaza.
A Complex Historical Context
The skepticism towards Israel’s plan is rooted in several historically failed attempts to establish alternative governance models in Gaza. During the 1970s and 1980s, Israel tried to empower tribal entities and local leaders to replace existing authoritative structures, but these strategies ended in tragic failures. These precedents cast a long shadow over current efforts, with many experts arguing that similar tactics will likely yield the same disappointing results.
While the Israeli government continues its efforts to form an alternative government, sources indicate that notable families in Gaza have already rejected Israeli offers of cooperation. For instance, Abu Salman Al-Mughni, a prominent figure among the Gaza families, has made it clear that the tribes cannot accept being an alternative to the legitimate, elected government.
U.S. Involvement and an Attempt at a Ceasefire
Adding another layer to the complex situation, U.S. President Joe Biden recently announced a new three-phase peace plan aimed at ending hostilities in Gaza. This plan proposes a six-week truce as an initial step, during which Israeli hostages would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners, followed by a permanent ceasefire and a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The plan's third phase would focus on a major reconstruction effort in Gaza.
The success of this proposal hinges on Hamas accepting this new Israeli offer, which appears to mirror previous demands made by Hamas in earlier negotiations. President Biden emphasized that Hamas has been 'devastated' by the eight-month-long conflict and urged the group to agree to the terms to show their genuine interest in peace. However, skepticism persists about the acceptance and implementation of this plan, especially in the light of the deeply entrenched conflict and differing political agendas.
- The announcement of the peace plan by President Biden highlighted the importance of a comprehensive diplomatic approach involving key regional players like Qatar and Egypt. The plan aims to address humanitarian concerns by allowing 600 trucks with aid supplies to enter Gaza daily, and aims to restore some level of normalcy for Palestinian civilians who have been uprooted from their homes.
- Despite the significant efforts put into this diplomatic initiative, its success will largely depend on both sides' willingness to compromise. Hamas's acceptance remains uncertain, especially given their history of stringent demands and resistance to Israeli terms. Furthermore, the reaction within Israel, where some factions may oppose any form of negotiation with Hamas, could also impact the plan's viability.
