Renewed Threat of ISIS in Syria
The resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria has become a pressing concern as recent developments have altered the landscape of control within the country. Following the collapse of the Assad regime's forces and the diminishing influence of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), ISIS has begun to re-emerge in areas previously considered secure. Mazloum Abdi, the SDF commander, highlighted on December 12, 2024, that ISIS's activities are no longer confined to remote desert regions but are now infiltrating areas under SDF control. This shift marks a significant change from late 2019 when ISIS lost its territorial stronghold in Syria.
According to reports, approximately 1,200 ISIS members are currently active across various provinces, including Hasakah, Deir ez-Zor, and Homs. The organization has adapted its operational strategy, focusing on scattered security cells rather than maintaining geographical control. Recent attacks attributed to ISIS have targeted both Iranian-backed militias and the remnants of the Assad regime, indicating a resurgence in their operational capabilities.
U.S. Military Presence and Strategic Operations
In response to the escalating threat from ISIS, U.S. forces stationed at the Al-Tanf base have intensified their efforts to curb the group's activities, particularly along the Syrian-Iraqi border. Despite the changing dynamics on the ground, U.S. Central Command has no immediate plans to withdraw from Al-Tanf or Ain al-Assad bases, recognizing their strategic importance in countering ISIS resurgence. The U.S. has also facilitated the deployment of the
Jaysh al-Thawra
faction to fill the vacuum left by withdrawing Iranian-backed militias, aiming to prevent ISIS from exploiting the situation.
The U.S. military's commitment to supporting local factions like Jaysh al-Thawra is expected to increase, especially as tensions rise between Turkey and the SDF. Washington's pressure on the SDF to withdraw from key areas like Manbij and Deir ez-Zor may further reshape the operational landscape, potentially allowing for a more aggressive stance against ISIS.
Turkish Involvement and Regional Cooperation
Turkey has expressed its readiness to take a more active role in combating ISIS's resurgence in Syria. Turkish forces, in collaboration with the Syrian National Army, have been conducting counter-terrorism operations and have successfully dismantled numerous ISIS cells in the past. This cooperation has been bolstered by a recent security agreement between Turkey and Iraq, aimed at enhancing intelligence sharing and operational coordination against ISIS.
The ongoing instability in Syria, coupled with the declining control of the SDF over Arab regions, could lead to an increase in local support for ISIS. Many individuals have reportedly joined the organization in response to perceived injustices by the SDF, prompting calls for the international coalition to pressure the SDF to improve its relations with local Arab communities. The evolving situation necessitates a coordinated response from both local and international actors to effectively counter the re-emerging threat of ISIS in Syria.
