The Resurgence of ISIS in Somalia
In a troubling development for regional security, the Islamic State (ISIS) has re-emerged as a significant threat in Somalia, nearly nine years after its establishment in the country. Following its pledge of allegiance to Abdulqadir Mumin, a former Al-Shabaab leader, ISIS has regained military influence, particularly in Puntland, where it has achieved notable territorial gains. The International Crisis Group has raised alarms about the potential for ISIS to conduct attacks, although its threat level remains lower than that of the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabaab.
Factors Behind ISIS's Military Gains
Analysts attribute the resurgence of ISIS in Somalia to a decline in local and international military operations against the group, allowing it to reorganize and strengthen its ranks in the mountainous regions of Puntland. Adam Badie, a strategic analyst, notes that the rugged terrain has facilitated the establishment of training camps and operational bases, enabling ISIS to launch attacks against military and urban centers. The group’s military superiority over Al-Shabaab has been bolstered by local tribal affiliations, which have aided in recruitment and operational effectiveness.
The Future of ISIS and Al-Shabaab in Somalia
As ISIS continues to expand its influence, concerns grow about its potential transformation into a regional organization within the Horn of Africa. While it has surpassed Al-Shabaab in financial capabilities in Puntland, challenges remain, including competition for resources and local support. The ongoing conflict between ISIS and Al-Shabaab is expected to persist, influenced by international military pressure and the effectiveness of local governance in countering both groups. Despite these threats, Somali authorities have downplayed the immediate danger posed by ISIS, citing its limited numbers and operational capacity.
