Iran's vulnerability has increased following recent geopolitical setbacks, making military alliances more critical for its national security.
Russia's strategic interests in the Middle East may lead to a future agreement with Iran, despite current delays, as both nations seek to counterbalance Western influence.
The internal political dynamics in Iran, particularly regarding the succession of leadership, could significantly impact the timing and nature of the strategic partnership with Russia.
The strategic partnership between Russia and Iran is likely to be finalized in the coming months, potentially after the inauguration of Donald Trump.
Iran's shifting political landscape may influence its foreign policy direction, possibly leading to a more favorable environment for Russian interests in the region.
Increased cooperation between Russia and Iran could reshape the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, particularly in relation to U.S. interests.
Iran is seeking a comprehensive strategic partnership with Russia, primarily for military guarantees amid increasing geopolitical threats from adversaries such as Turkey, Israel, and the United States. The Iranian Foreign Ministry's representative, Ismail Bagai, expressed hope for the signing of the treaty by the end of January 2025. However, negotiations are stalled due to Russian demands for revisions, particularly concerning minor details in the draft agreement.
Russia appears to be delaying the agreement as it awaits the outcome of negotiations with the incoming Trump administration, viewing the treaty as a potential bargaining chip for concessions on more critical issues, particularly in relation to Ukraine.
The Iranian leadership is currently in a state of uncertainty, with President Masoud Pezeshkian favoring improved relations with the West, while the Supreme Leader's health raises questions about the future of Iran's political stability. Despite these challenges, both countries share common geopolitical interests, including countering Turkish influence and reducing American dominance in the region.
