Government Faces Tough Negotiations to Secure Senate Votes for Bases Law
Securing a comfortable majority in the Senate for the Bases Law has proven to be a formidable task for Javier Milei's administration. Despite efforts to rally support, the ruling party finds itself in a precarious situation with votes hanging in the balance. As of Sunday night, projections indicated 36 votes in favor and 33 against, predominantly from the Unión por la Patria bench.
The Senate remains split into three distinct factions: the Peronist bench with 33 members, the libertarians and the PRO adding up to 13, and the UCR, dissident Peronists, and provincial blocks amassing 26. This division creates a fragile equilibrium where any slight shift could jeopardize the Government’s plans.
Key figures like Senator Martín Lousteau of the Radical Civic Union and Santa Cruz representatives Natalia Gadano and José María Carambia are central to these negotiations, with their voting intentions still uncertain. Notably, Carambia had previously leveraged his position on the General Legislation commission to negotiate higher mining royalties in exchange for his support, though doubts about the Government's commitment to this deal persist.
In the complex arithmetic of Senate votes, the ruling party needs a minimum of 37 votes to secure a victory. In case of a tie, Vice President Victoria Villarruel or, in her absence, the provisional Senate president Bartolomé Abdala, may cast the deciding vote.
Should the Bases Law pass, the government faces further challenges in the particular votes, especially regarding contentious articles on presidential powers, privatizing public companies, and the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI). To ensure passage, discussions have included potential amendments, such as excluding certain state-owned companies from privatization.
A meeting of Parliamentary Labor is scheduled, aiming to finalize the session's format. However, given the contentious nature of the fiscal package and the base law, prolonged debates are anticipated. Some members have suggested continuing discussions into the week, but the ruling party is keen on avoiding delays.
- The ruling party's urgency is compounded by broader political maneuvers and the need to demonstrate effective governance. Amid internal divisions and external pressures, securing the Bases Law is seen as a pivotal moment that may define the administration's legislative success. In parallel political dramas, factions on the opposition side are also grappling with internal conflicts. In a notable development, Gantz and his party recently announced their withdrawal from the coalition, further complicating the legislative landscape. Meanwhile, opposition leaders like Lieberman and Yair Lapid have vocally criticized the current government, particularly in the context of the conscription law and its implications for national security. Lieberman and Lapid’s criticisms underscore a broader dissatisfaction within various segments of the political spectrum, alleging the government prioritizes political gain over national interest. This rhetoric is especially poignant in the wake of recent military and national security challenges.
