Election Results and Voting Dynamics
The recent legislative elections in France have showcased significant shifts and unexpected outcomes. The National Rally (RN) secured 8.7 million votes in the second round, which climbs to over 10 million when including votes from the alliance with Éric Ciotti. Despite this, the RN and its associates are only the third force in the National Assembly with 143 seats. The Ensemble group leads with 156 seats, followed by the New Popular Front (NFP) with 174 deputies.
Disparity Between Votes and Seats
This discrepancy between the number of votes and the number of deputies elected is largely due to the voting method. The two-round direct universal suffrage system allows multiple candidates to qualify if they achieve at least 12.5% of the votes in the first round. At the end of the first round of the 2024 legislative elections, RN and Ciotti's alliance candidates qualified in 485 constituencies, with 444 remaining in the race for the second round. Conversely, to block the far right, 215 candidates from other parties withdrew, leading to a more concentrated vote distribution for the remaining candidates.
Key Incidents and Political Maneuvering
Two former Macronist deputies, Anne-Laurence Petel and Émilie Chandler, faced backlash for remaining in the race despite the 'republican front' strategy to block the RN. Both were defeated, highlighting the challenges faced by other left and Macron camp candidates who benefited from reciprocal withdrawals. Élisabeth Borne, a prominent figure from the Macron camp, managed to retain her seat in Vire (Calvados) by defeating RN's Nicolas Calbrix, thanks to the withdrawal of her NFP competitor.
Future Political Landscape
The left, united under the New Popular Front, is projected to obtain a relative majority of 180 to 215 seats, despite internal fractures. The presidential camp, although shaken, could retain between 150 to 180 seats. The RN, led by Jordan Bardella, fell short of an absolute majority, securing only 120 to 150 seats. Meanwhile, the right, despite Eric Ciotti's controversial alliance with RN, is expected to maintain a stable presence with 60 to 65 seats.
