French Election Runoff: Rural-Urban Divide and Right-Wing Populism
In the second round of the French election, the liberal center-right alliance led by President Emmanuel Macron is facing a significant challenge from right-wing populists, particularly in rural areas. Experts warn that the strategy of uniting against the right may not necessarily lead to success due to widespread disillusionment with politics in the countryside.
Rural vs. Urban Voting Trends
In smaller towns like Colombier-Saugnieu, near Lyon, the Rassemblement National (RN) candidate has garnered substantial support, with 54 percent of votes in the first round. This trend contrasts sharply with urban areas where right-wing populists are struggling to make significant inroads. For instance, in Lyon, Paris, and Toulouse, RN candidates are trailing behind other party alliances.
Impact of the Republican Front
Polling data from Ipsos reveals that the 'republican front' to block the far right has been relatively effective. In scenarios where the runoff is between the Ensemble presidential majority and RN, a significant number of left-wing voters have shifted their support to Macron's candidates. However, support varies depending on the left-wing party involved, with voters more hesitant to back candidates from La France Insoumise (LFI) compared to other left-wing factions.
Future Implications
Despite earlier projections suggesting a potential parliamentary majority for right-wing populists, recent polls indicate a more modest outcome, with RN expected to secure between 175 to 205 seats. This reflects a persistent fear of the RN among voters, who view the party as extremist and unfit to govern. The evolving dynamics of voter behavior in the French election underline the complexities of political alliances and the ongoing rural-urban divide.
- Political science professor Stéphane Cadiou from the University of Lyon cautions against making broad assumptions based on early voting trends. He notes that while rural areas show strong support for RN, urban centers like Nice and Toulon also exhibit significant backing for right-wing populists.
- The Ipsos survey highlights that the 'republican front' has been particularly strong among left-wing voters, with nearly three-quarters supporting Macronist candidates in the runoff. However, this support is less robust when the left-wing candidate is from LFI, reflecting internal divisions within the left.
- The fear of RN remains a powerful factor influencing voter behavior. In duels between RN and other parties, a substantial portion of voters from both left-wing and center-right backgrounds tend to support the non-RN candidate, underscoring the party's controversial status.
