The second round of the legislative elections in France has delivered unexpected results, reshaping the political landscape and raising questions about the future of the Fifth Republic. The National Rally (RN), despite its strong showing in the first round, fell short of achieving a majority, securing between 135 and 143 deputies. This outcome highlights the persistent challenges faced by the far-right party in translating initial support into decisive victories.
The New Popular Front (NFP), a coalition of left-wing parties including La France Insoumise, the French Communist Party, the Socialist Party, and Les Écologues, emerged as a significant force. With projections of securing between 188 and 199 seats, the NFP stands as the largest group in the National Assembly, capitalizing on strategic withdrawals and vote transfers to block the RN.
Élisabeth Borne, the outgoing Prime Minister and a key figure in Macron's camp, managed to retain her seat in Vire (Calvados), defeating her RN opponent with over 55% of the votes. Her victory underscores the effectiveness of the 'Republican front' strategy, which saw left-wing and centrist candidates stepping aside to prevent the far-right from gaining ground.
The RN's failure to secure a majority echoes historical patterns where the party, despite strong first-round performances, struggles in subsequent rounds due to consolidated opposition. This phenomenon was notably seen in December 2015, following the traumatic November 13 attacks, where the left and right united to block the FN from winning key regional elections.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the Insoumis, declared the NFP ready to govern, emphasizing their intention to implement significant reforms, such as repealing the pension reform and increasing the minimum wage. The NFP's success in the legislative elections positions them as a formidable opposition force, capable of challenging Macron's policies.
The legislative elections have also highlighted deep societal divisions, reminiscent of historical conflicts like the Spanish Civil War. Families and communities are polarized, with intense debates over immigration, national identity, and economic policies. This polarization is reflected in the high voter turnout and the widespread fear of post-election violence, necessitating a heavy police presence and precautionary measures in major cities.
- The legislative elections in France have not only reshaped the political landscape but also revealed deep societal rifts. The RN's campaign, marked by xenophobic rhetoric and attacks on minorities, has heightened tensions, leading to fears of post-election violence. The government has deployed 30,000 police officers nationwide, with a significant presence in Paris, Lyon, and Grenoble to prevent potential riots and looting.
- Marine Le Pen's RN, despite its softened stance on some issues, continues to advocate for restrictive immigration policies and national preference in social benefits. This approach has resonated with voters frustrated by economic challenges and perceived threats to national identity, but it has also alienated a significant portion of the electorate.
- The NFP's strategy of withdrawing candidates to block the RN has proven effective, but it has also reduced the number of their own candidates in the running. Despite this, the coalition's stronghold in the southwest and major metropolitan areas has ensured a substantial presence in the National Assembly.
- President Emmanuel Macron, facing a weakened centrist coalition, must navigate a complex political landscape. With the RN and NFP holding significant seats, Macron's ability to implement his pro-business and pro-European Union policies will be severely tested. The potential for a coalition or technocratic government looms, as the traditional power dynamics in the French parliament are upended.
- The election results have also sparked intense family and community debates, reflecting broader societal divisions. In Paris, for instance, families are divided over support for the RN, with older generations expressing concerns about immigration and national identity, while younger members advocate for more inclusive and progressive policies.
